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Latest Opinion Poll #1
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 4122
Location: Winnipeg

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And while more seats are nice, that's still only 5 potential Conservative losses in the best case scenario. The real place where an NDP rise defeats Conservatives is out West. Evidently there is an anti-Harper vote split, but even so, the overall support for the Conservatives according to that poll is too high for my liking.
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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Location: Toronto, ON

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want to look at things purely from the perspective of CPC seats lost, then bear in mind that the numbers suggest that the BQ will take possibly as many as five seats from the CPC, and that the Liberals may reclaim some seats such as Dethesne-Mississipni-Churchill River. The NDP isn't the only party with the capacity to take seats from the CPC. It's also wise to remember that in BC (for example), CPC support is fairly concentrated into a number of super-majority seats in the Interior (except for BC Southern Interior and Skeena-Bulkley Valley), just as the West number will be skewed for the CPC by the fact that the Cons get something like 66% support in Alberta.

Another CPC seat that might go to the NDP is Edmonton-Strathcona, where there is an organized "Liberals for Linda" campaign.
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Northern54
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Location: Yellowknife

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:46 am    Post subject: Last Nanos Reply with quote

Nanos (Oct. 13):

National (MOE: 3%)
CPC: 34.2%
LPC: 26.7%
NDP: 21.4%
BQ: 9.5%
GPC: 8.2%
Undecided: 16%

Atlantic (MOE: 8.8%)
LPC: 41%
NDP: 24%
CPC: 25%
GPC: 11%
Undecided: 15%

Quebec (MOE: 6.2%)
BQ: 40%
LPC: 22%
NDP: 13%
CPC: 19%
GPC: 6%
Undecided: 21%

Ontario (MOE: 5.6%)
CPC: 33%
LPC: 35%
NDP: 26%
GPC: 6%
Undecided: 14%

Western Canada (MOE: 5%)
CPC: 48%
LPC: 19%
NDP: 23%
GPC: 11%
Undecided: 13%
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F.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Another CPC seat that might go to the NDP is Edmonton-Strathcona, where there is an organized "Liberals for Linda" campaign.


Really? Wow. I can't help but think that years of Liberal-generated strategic voting karma has come back to bite them on the ass. No wonder Layton seemed so happy yesterday when he predicted a win in Alberta.
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ronb
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I spoke to a conservative from Edmonton on Sunday who was leaning NDP this election. She has reached the conclusion that both the Liberals and Conservatives are corrupt to the core. Let's hope there's a bunch more like her.
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nanos has released a new poll (parenthetical numbers are change from the election):
Nationwide - MOE +/- 3.4%
CPC - 32% (-6%)
LPC - 30% (+4%)
NDP - 20% (+2%)
GPC - 10% (+3%)
BQ - 9% (-1%)
Undecided - 14%

Western Canada - MOE +/- 5.7%
CPC - 38% (-14%)
LPC - 27% (+11%)
NDP - 23% (+1%)
GPC - 13% (+5%)
Undecided - 14%
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Cartman
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe the Liberals should try going without a leader.
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sparqui
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ROTFL
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Vundo Draxon
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cartman wrote:
Maybe the Liberals should try going without a leader.


I thought they tried that already Razz
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anne cameron
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm with you Vundo...I didn't know they had one, either....
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scott
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Todays' Mustel BC poll:

BC Liberals and NDP Neck and Neck

Liberals 44%
NDP 42%
Greens 12%
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

scott wrote:
Todays' Mustel BC poll:

BC Liberals and NDP Neck and Neck

Liberals 44%
NDP 22%
Greens 12%

You've got your numbers a bit off. The link says the NDP is at 42%.
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scott
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fixed.

Here are 2 more BC polls from last week

Angus Reid Strategies

NDP 44%
Liberals 39%
Greens 11%

Ipsos

Liberals 44%, (down 3 points)
NDP 35% (up 2 points)
Greens 16% (unchanged)

So now we have the complete set.
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Nanos numbers federally show the Liberals leading:

LPC - 34% (+8 from election)
CPC - 33% (-5 from election)
NDP - 19% (+1 from election)
GPC - 7% (no change)

No number given for the BQ in the Globe and Mail article.

The Quebec numbers are interesting:
LPC- 39%
BQ - 29%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 14%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090109.wiggpol...
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Ingo
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 11, 2009 6:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Ipsos Reid Poll:

Support for the major parties varies by region:

In British Columbia, the Tories (52%) lead by a substantial margin over the Liberals (20%), NDP (13%) and Green Party (13%).

In Alberta, the Conservatives (69%) continue to dominate the landscape over the rival Liberals (19%), NDP (9%) and Green Party (2%).

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservative’s (35%) lead over the Liberals (29%) NDP (27%) and Green Party (8%) has been diminished.

In seat-rich Ontario, the Tories (38%) enjoy a modest lead over the Grits (32%), NDP (20%) and Green Party (10%).

In Quebec, the Bloc leads (35%), but the Liberals (32%) continue to show a relatively strong performance when compared to the Conservatives (19%). The NDP (7%) and Green Party (7%) lag.

In volatile Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (40%) lead, while the NDP (26%) and the Liberals (25%) are statistically tied for second-place. The Green Party (9%) trails.


It looks like BC is becoming the most right-wing province in Canada after Alberta based upon the Cons support. Shocked That sucks! Rolling Eyes
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Simon Vallée
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Results from BC are notoriously unreliable from nearly all polling companies, just like Atlantic Canada. It may be true, but again it may not be, it's hard to tell. Personnally I never believe any major change in either Atlantic Canada or BC until a few other polls confirm it.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ingo wrote:
It looks like BC is becoming the most right-wing province in Canada after Alberta based upon the Cons support. Shocked That sucks! Rolling Eyes


I don't believe that poll, simply because I have a hard time believing the Liberals have gained that much, especially in BC, Alberta, and Quebec.
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scott
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the BC provincial election coming up on May 12, the polls are staring to come. Interesting that there were no questions asked about the pro-rep referendum

March 24. Ipsos Reid. 800 polled.

BCL: 46%
NDP: 35%
GRN: 15%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4320

March 25 Angus Reid released their poll of 800 people.

BCL: 43%
NDP: 37%
GRN: 13%
BCC: 4%

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/polls-analysis/opinion-polls/bc-...
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How is it that the Liberals have run such a cluster-fuck of a government and are still so popular?
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Rufus Polson
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because the media never tells anybody.
Seriously. The last NDP government made one major mistake--mismanaging the building of new ferries. The basic idea, getting some industry back to BC, was a good one, but the execution sucked. The newspapers talked about nothing else for months upon months.

The Liberals make fuck-up after fuck-up and push stupid policy after downright evil policy, many of them costing more than the fast ferries ever did, others involving not just money but also closing down democracy, high-level corruption, even probable loss of life--and the papers will do an article or two and let it blow over. So people's general impression is the NDP were bad and the Liberals are good, because surely our oh-so-fucking-neutral media would complain more about the Liberals than they did about the NDP if the Liberals were worse.

#$@%!
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scott
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mustel poll for BC out today:
http://mustelgroup.com/pdf/20090414.pdf

BC Liberals 52%
NDP 35%
Green Party 12%.

These results are essentially identical to those obtained in Mustel Group’s last measure in February.
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scott
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

65 per cent of British Columbians support BC-STV

Quote:
British Columbia voters are giving a big thumbs up to electoral reform with 65 per cent saying they will vote for BC-STV in the upcoming referendum on May 12. That is the top line result of a major survey conducted by Angus Reid Strategies. Support for a new way of electing our MLAs is particularly strong among younger voters – those 18 to 34 – at 74 per cent.

...

When presented with the question that will appear on the ballot, 65 per cent said yes to BC-STV while only 35 per cent chose to keep the current first-past-the post system. Angus Reid Strategies conducted the online survey March 9 to 12 and polled 702 British Columbians across the province.


This is good news as it tops the 60% threshold needed. Now if only we can get people out to vote.
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Rufus Polson
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I'll vote yes on that one. But it's kind of annoying because it's not the reform I'd have preferred. It's an improvement, but not my favourite of possible improvements.
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scott
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Federal poll from EKOS - not good news for the Cons Very Happy :

Cons 30.2
Libs 36.7
NDP 15.5
Green 8.1
Bloc 9.4

http://www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/political-update-results-cbc.pdf

This survey was conducted April 8-13, 2009

• In total, a random sample of 1,587 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey.
• A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).
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Reverend Blair
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2009 4:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
not good news for the Cons


Especially in Quebec and Ontario.
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TS.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "wrong direction" numbers are spiking too.

39% for the Liberals in SK/MB? Really?

And Harpo's personal approval numbers are in the tank.
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Reverend Blair
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd guess that 39% skews pretty heavily to the Manitoba side of the border, TS. I think we'll be seeing some Winnipeg seats (St. Boniface, maybe Tuxedo) shift back to the Liberals in the next election.

I have noticed some interest in Ignatieff when talking to people in Saskatchewan though. I'm not sure how solid it is. My guess is that it's about a mile wide and an inch deep...prone to rapid evaporation, but people who are pissed of at Harper for a variety of reasons have said, "What do you think about Ignatieff?"

My answer varies depending on whether I think they can be convinced to vote NDP or whether I think they can be only persuaded to vote for a right-wing Liberal, thus creating a Liberal/Conservative vote split instead of the usual Liberal/NDP vote split.
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Raos
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rufus Polson wrote:
Well, I'll vote yes on that one. But it's kind of annoying because it's not the reform I'd have preferred. It's an improvement, but not my favourite of possible improvements.


I know the feeling. If I ever get the chance to vote on electoral reform, I'd love to see the referendum including multiple options ranked by STV.
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Rufus Polson
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2009 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes! Now *that's* a good use for STV.
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thorin_bane
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seeing as we screwed the pooch on MMP here in Ontario, which was my choice. Oh yeah thanks Dave Cooke you good for nothing, no wonder you don't live in Windsor anymore, you forgot your roots.

There is a new poll out today 32 Libs 29 Cons 16 NDP 11 Greens and 9 Bloc all are approx...I couldn't find the link from rabble but those are the numbers being used.
Don't know what to think about the numbers, would love to see the NDP take the lead and start being more vocal to see 20 ish but they are too timid to put out the big ideas, at least not yet. By the time they do the libs will use the ideas but not put the into effect like usual.
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scott
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest BC Angus Reid poll: NDP trails BC Liberals by only three points

Liberals 42%
NDP 39
Greens 13
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Doug
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's surprisingly good considering that the BC NDP has not exactly had a stellar campaign so far.
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Rufus Polson
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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It helps that the Liberal campaign has also kind of sucked ass. I mean what have they said so far? Something along the lines of "Vote for us 'cause we're really Green, look at the carbon tax! And with the money from that, and a bunch more money, we're gonna build huge highways nobody wants! Isn't that totally green?"
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sparqui
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PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2009 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the avatar scott!
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TS.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Nanos numbers show a lead for the LPC beyond the statistical margin of error:
CPC: 31.8% (-5.9% from election)
LPC: 37.2% (+10.9% from election)
NDP: 15.7% (-2.5% from election)
BQ: 8.0% (-2.5% from election)
GPC: 7.4% (+0.6% from election)
MOE: +/- 3.3%
Undecided: 12%

Regional breakdowns are as follows.
Atlantic:
LPC: 42%
CPC: 33%
NDP: 18%
GPC: 8%
MOE: +/- 10.3%
Undecided: 11%

Quebec:
LPC: 38%
BQ: 35%
NDP: 13%
CPC: 12%
GPC: 2%
MOE: +/-7.0%
Undecided: 18%

Ontario:
LPC: 42%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 14%
GPC: 10%
MOE: +/- 6.1%
Undecided: 11%

West:
CPC: 42%
LPC: 31%
NDP: 18%
GPC: 9%
MOE: +/- 5.6%
Undecided: 10%
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EKOS has started calling the change in the weekly poll numbers in favour of the Liberals a "structural shift." For the third week in a row, the Liberals are showing up as essentially tied with the CPC. I'm waiting to see numbers from Nanos, since I trust them more than other pollsters, especially given EKOS' tendency to over-bill GPC support and underbill NDP support, but their numbers have been consistent, meaning they have probably spotted the right trend, even if the absolute numbers are off. This poll also has a major spike for the NDP in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with a gain of close to twice the margin of error.

National:
CPC: 31.0% (-0.1% from last poll)
LPC: 31.9% (+0.3% from last poll)
NDP: 15.4% (+0.8% from last poll)
GPC: 10.9% (-0.1% from last poll)
BQ: 8.4% (-0.5% from last poll)
Other: 2.4% (-0.2% from last poll) (concentrated in Alberta)
MOE: +/- 1.8%

BC:
CPC: 30.4% (-2.0%)
LPC: 27.6% (+0.5%)
NDP: 23.0% (+1.1%)
GPC: 16.4% (+1.8%)
Other: 2.7% (-1.3%)
MOE: +/- 5.09%

Alberta:
CPC: 52.9% (+1.9%)
LPC: 18.3% (-0.3%)
GPC: 13.0% (-2.4%)
NDP: 10.4% (+1.0%)
Other: 6.2% (-0.2%)
MOE: +/- 6.19%

Saskatchewan and Manitoba:
CPC: 39.9% (-4.5%)
NDP: 31.2% (+11.3%)
LPC: 19.8% (-4.1%)
GPC: 7.9% (-0.9%)
Other: 1.2% (-1.8%)
MOE: +/- 6.46%

Ontario:
LPC: 40.6% (+1.4%)
CPC: 32.4% (+0.8%)
NDP: 14.0% (-0.8%)
GPC: 10.5% (-1.9%)
Other: 2.4% (+0.5%)
MOE: +/- 2.95%

Quebec:
BQ: 34.9% (-2.1%)
LPC: 27.0% (-2.1%)
CPC: 17.8% (+1.6%)
NDP: 9.8% (+0.5%)
GPC: 8.8% (+1.8%)
Other: 1.7% (+0.3%)
MOE: +/- 3.64%

Atlantic Canada:
LPC: 38.8% (+5.0%)
CPC: 31.7% (-5.4%)
NDP: 19.2% (-1.9%)
GPC: 9.6% (+3.0%)
Other: 0.7% (-0.6%)
MOE: +/- 6.16%
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Nanos numbers are out today.

National (MOE +/- 3.5%)
CPC: 35.6% (-3.9% from December)
LPC: 33.9% (+3.7% from December)
NDP: 16.4% (-2.3% from December)
BQ: 8.5% (+0.8% from December)
GPC: 5.6% (+1.6% from December)
Undecided: 21.9% (-3.8% from December)

Atlantic (MOE +/- 10.0%)
LPC: 35.8% (+7.6% from December)
CPC: 35.7% (+0.2% from December)
NDP: 25.2% (-10.4% from December)
GPC: 3.3% (+2.5% from December)
Undecided: 20.4% (+1.3% from December)

Quebec (MOE +/- 7.0%)
BQ: 33.2% (+0.8% from December)
LPC: 29.3% (-0.2% from December)
CPC: 22.2% (-1.6% from December)
NDP: 10.5% (-1.6% from December)
GPC: 4.9% (+2.6% from December)
Undecided: 19.7% (-10.2% from December)

Ontario (MOE +/- 6.7%)
LPC: 42.0% (+3.5% from December)
CPC: 39.4% (+2.0% from December)
NDP: 10.9% (-5.7% from December)
GPC: 7.7% (+0.2% from December)
Undecided: 25.8% (-2.7% from December)

Prairies (MOE +/- 7.6%)
CPC: 45.4% (-14.1% from December)
LPC: 29.6% (+7.5% from December)
NDP: 20.9% (+4.8% from December)
GPC: 4.2% (+1.9% from December)
Undecided: 17.5% (-5.3% from December)

British Columbia (MOE +/- 9.4%)
CPC: 37.1% (-6.1% from December)
LPC: 31.9% (+3.6% from December)
NDP: 24.7% (+0.7% from December)
GPC: 6.3% (+1.8% from December)
Undecided: 24.8% (+3.2% from December)
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Raos
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Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That doesn't make sense, the given numbers for change from December doesn't add up.
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raos wrote:
That doesn't make sense, the given numbers for change from December doesn't add up.

The "undecided" is separate from the party choice numbers. The party choice numbers, and thus the change from December numbers for party choice, are based only on decided voters. The undecided number, and thus the change from December numbers for undecideds, is based by definition on undecided voters.
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Raos
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah, I see. That seems like a bit of an odd way to do things.
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raos wrote:
Ah, I see. That seems like a bit of an odd way to do things.

Doesn't seem odd to me. Every poll is conducted of decided voters, its just that not all of them publish their undecided numbers.
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Raos
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps a bit of a strange way to report it, then. If it's treated differently, it should be represented differently.
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Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can read the whole poll here: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W10-T409E.pdf

It has a section that explains the methodology. The way I put everything here was due to the inherent limits of the text box.
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Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Nanos poll has the Conservatives and Liberals pretty well exactly tied. The CPC took a big hit in the Atlantic where the vote went mostly Liberal. The NDP has had a nice jump in Ontario, and the GPC has climbed in Bc, though still well in fourth place.

Canada (MOE +/- 3.5%)
CPC: 34.7% (-0.9 from February)
LPC: 34.6% (+0.5 from February)
NDP: 17.8% (+1.4 from February)
BQ: 7.7% (-0.8% from February)
GPC: 5.2% (-0.4% from February)
Undecided: 19.6% (-2.3 from February)

Atlantic (MOE +/- 10.6%)
LPC: 42% (+6.2 from February)
NDP: 29.5% (+4.3 from February)
CPC: 25.0% (-10.7% from February - a drop larger than the margin of error)
GPC: 3.4% (+0.1 from February)
Undecided: 12.0% (-8.4 from February)

Quebec (MOE +/- 7.1%)
BQ: 31.5% (-1.7 from February)
LPC: 31.0% (+0.7 from February)
CPC: 21.8% (-0.4 from February)
NDP: 11.7% (+1.2 from February)
GPC: 4.1% (-0.8 from February)
Undecided: 20.9% (+1.2 from February)

Ontario (MOE +/- 6.4%)
LPC: 41.7% (-0.3 from February)
CPC: 39.2% (-0.2 from February)
NDP: 14.6% (+3.7 from February)
GPC: 4.6% (-3.1 from February)
Undecided: 20.3% (-5.3 from February)

Prairies (MOE +/- 7.8%)
CPC: 47.5% (+2.1 from February)
LPC: 29.0% (-0.6 from February)
NDP: 19.8% (-1.1 from February)
GPC: 3.7% (-0.5 from February)
Undecided: 19.0% (+1.5 from February)

BC (MOE +/- 9.2%)
CPC: 36.8% (-0.3 from February)
LPC: 28.2% (-3.5 from February)
NDP: 23.1% (-1.6 from February)
GPC: 12.0% (+5.7 from February)
Undecided: 22.0% (-2.8 from February)
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less


Joined: 12 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 1:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

More Canadians would prefer to have a beer with Jack Layton than with other national leaders. Ignatieff's at the bottom of the pack. And obviously Stephen Harper wasn't all that popular either, can you imagine how much fun that would be?

Quote:
More Canadians would prefer to have a beer with Jack Layton than with Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff, a new poll suggests.
Twenty-six per cent of those surveyed in a recent EKOS poll said they would rather drink a beer with Jack Layton than Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff. Twenty-six per cent of those surveyed in a recent EKOS poll said they would rather drink a beer with Jack Layton than Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff.

... Some 23 per cent of respondents said they would rather share suds with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The Conservative leader's theoretical drinking companions were most likely to be males, other Conservatives, seniors or from Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was the least popular option in the poll, selected by only 10 per cent of respondents. Even those who described themselves as Liberal voters were more likely to opt for a brewski with Layton. Ignatieff was, however, the preferred quaffer of respondents from British Columbia.


CBC.
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Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2010 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tehanu wrote:
More Canadians would prefer to have a beer with Jack Layton than with other national leaders. Ignatieff's at the bottom of the pack. And obviously Stephen Harper wasn't all that popular either, can you imagine how much fun that would be?


They didn't give a choice to snort coke with Raheem, eh? Razz Twisted Evil

Ackshully, I'd *much* rather down a few with the MLA for Vancouver-West End ( Mr. Green ) and send the bill to Flim-Flam Flaherty. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New numbers from Nanos:

Canada (MOE +/- 3.1%)
CPC: 35.6% (-1.6 from May)
LPC: 29.2% (-4.0 from May)
NDP: 20.7% (+4.5 from May)
BQ: 9.4% (-0.2 from May)
GPC: 5.1% (+1.3 from May)
Undecided: 24.2% (+2.0 from May)

Big gain for the NDP and a big loss for the Liberals means that even though the Conservatives take a not insubstantial drop, their lead widens to almost 6.5%.

Atlantic Canada (MOE +/- 11.3%)
LPC: 39.4% (-4.0 from May)
CPC: 34.4% (-4.0 from May)
NDP: 25.9% (+8.0 from May)
GPC: no significant level of support
Undecided: 19.3% (-2.2 from May)

Quebec (MOE +/- 7.3%)
BQ: 38.6% (+0.7 from May) [note: not sure how this number squares with the national number drop for the BQ]
LPC: 24.6% (-2.1 from May)
CPC: 19.3% (-4.2 from May)
NDP: 13.8% (+2.2 from May)
GPC: 2.7% (+3.4 from May)
Undecided: 23.6% (-1.4 from May)

Ontario (MOE +/- 6.6%)
CPC: 43.2% (+5.1 from May)
LPC: 32.4% (-9.2 from May)
NDP: 19.1% (+2.4 from May)
GPC: 5.2% (+0.4 from May)
Undecided: 24.6% (+4.2 from May)

Major drop for the Liberals here, putting the Conservatives in position to potentially gain a lot more seats in Ontario.

Prairies (MOE +/- 7.9%)
CPC: 41.7% (-13.0 from May!!)
LPC: 30.1% (+3.5 from May)
NDP: 23.9% (+10.1 from May!)
GPC: 4.3% (-2.6 from May)
Undecided: 25.8% (+3.6 from May)

A crushing drop for the Conservatives here going mostly to the NDP. Importantly, the Conservative drop and the NDP gain are far outside of the margin of error, which suggests that something significant is going on in the prairie provinces.

British Columbia (MOE +/- 9.6%)
CPC: 39.3% (+3.2 from May)
NDP: 27.6% (+2.0 from May)
LPC: 21.3% (-10.9 from May!)
GPC: 11.8% (+5.7 from May)
Undecided: 25.4% (+4.4 from May)

A major drop for the Liberals here has to be concerning for them, paired as it is with their drop in Ontario.

An interesting feature of this poll is that in all of the provinces or regions in which there have been changes outside the margin of error, there has also been an increase in the undecideds of at least 3.5%. This may indicate that more people were being removed from the confirmed voter group that makes up the numbers in the poll, resulting in more swings. If that is what is happening, it still tells us that the Liberal vote in Ontario and BC is extremely soft, and that the Conservative vote in the Prairie provinces may be softening.
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, FFS. The Tories are STILL significantly ahead, even after all the G20 crap. Guess schmoozing with HMQE2 didn't hurt.

People. What will it take???

(Getting rid of Ignatieff would be a start.)

Quote:
Support for the federal Liberal party has sunk to its lowest level in more than a year with the Conservatives taking a 10-point lead over their political rivals, a new EKOS opinion poll suggests.

The poll, released exclusively to CBC, suggests that 34.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 23.9 per cent for the Liberals.

In recent weeks, the Liberals had narrowed the Tory lead to three to four percentage points. But over the past week, the Liberals have taken a nearly seven-point drop in support.

... The Liberals' numbers fell as Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been in the spotlight of late as host of the G8/G20 summits in Huntsville, Ont., and Toronto and attending events with Queen Elizabeth during her trip to Canada.

.. Support for the New Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Bloc Québécois has remained stable over the past few week with the NDP at 17.9 per cent, the Green Party at 11.2 per cent, and the Bloc at 10.5 per cent, the poll suggested.


CBC.
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Rufus Polson
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Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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Location: SFU and/or the college of Riddlemastery at Caithnard

PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whaddya mean, "even" after all the G20 crap?
The G20 crap is what gave them a bounce. Harper looked great! He came into the G20 with a "tough" policy position, and his position was largely adopted, so he looked influential (he may even have been influential, in which case when the renewed worldwide recession comes some of the credit will be his). His big spending on security was vindicated in the eyes of the average viewer when a security threat duly materialized; all the more basic questions about why there, what about the negative actions of that security, what about civil liberties, and whether the policy position was any good were sidelined by pictures of a burning police car and people in black smashing windows. Harper looked like our tough protector who was listened to on the world stage. So he got a bounce in the polls, and it's going to take a lot more time and evidence of his corruption and contempt for the interests of Canadians to bring him back down to where he was.

The Canadian left needs to forget "diversity of tactics" and just jump on Black Bloc types the moment they see them. Chances are they're cops anyway.
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Reverend Blair
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One poll does not a trend make. Give it a couple of weeks and see what things look like.

Rufus has some good points about the results of the G-20 on the perceptions of the average Canadian though.
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