EnMasse

[leftcoastguy]

[leftcoastguy]

Leger Marketing Provincial Polling - Quebec

Party / March / Jun 25 / Change

PLQ / 32% / 37% / Up 5%

PQ / 43% / 33% / Down 10%

AD / ?? / 17%

QS / ?? / 06%

Liberals eclipse PQ in new poll Good-news announcements by Charest appear to turn the tide in Quebec

[leftcoastguy]

CP -39%, LP - 25%, ND - 21%

Link

[leftcoastguy]

National Polling - Environics, June 23

Party / Last Election / June 23 / Change

NDP / 18% / 21% / Up 3%

CPC / 36% / 39% / Up 3%

LPC / 30% / 25% / Down 5%

[Simon Vallée]

Environics keep overestimating the NDP's support, so I won't cheer because of those results.
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Québécois, socialist, sovereignist and metalhead.

[leftcoastguy]

National Polling - Environics - June 23, 2006

Party / Last Election / March 31 / June 23 / Change

NDP / 18% / 21% / 21% / Up 3%

CPC / 36% / 41% / 39% / Up 3%

LPC / 30% / 22% / 25% / Down 5%

BLOC / 11% / 10% / 09% / Down 2%

GPC / 05% / 05% / 04% / Down 1%

OtTH / 01% / 01% / 01% / Flatlined

[leftcoastguy]

[Simon Vallée]

Québec solidaire has been in the poll choices for a few months now in Québec, but I'm not a part of it. Until they decide they are a party which wants to take power and act like it, I'm not going to join them.

BTW, it's NPD in French, not PND, and no, there isn't much news here.
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Québécois, socialist, sovereignist and metalhead.

[leftcoastguy]

Simon

Here's their methodology but can't seem to find any apparent reason for the suggestion that Environics results in higher support for certain parties, unless it is that undecided question.

It appears from the results of the polling that the undecided remains to a certain extent regardless of that additional question to the undecided. I wonder what the difference would be in the polling results if that undecided question were not asked.

[snowman]

Some quick math could explain why Environics tends to give lousy numbers to the Liberals, and give the NDP better numbers...

http://erg.environics.net/news/default.asp?aID=607

Manitoba and Saskatchewan, together, has about 2 million people (1/16th of the total population). The poll collects 12.6% of all data from those two provinces. The Liberals were badly beaten by the Conservatives in those provinces in the election.

The over-polling of these regions come as the expense of their Ontario numbers. Less than 30% of all data were from Ontario--a province with about 38% of the population of Canada. The Liberals were neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in the election.

In terms of popular vote, the NDP did a bit better in the two Prairie provinces than they did in Ontario.

In their effort to show more regional breakdowns (most of them are meaningless in these polls), they distorted the national numbers.

[snowman]

Though it's worth noting that SES Research, whom most people find to be more accurate, has similar sample bias with Ontario and Western Canada. Western Canada had the biggest sample, even though Ontario has more people.

http://www.sesresearch.com/main.asp

[Q*Bert]

[leftcoastguy]

Snowman

You are correect in that according to the latest (2005) Statistics Canada demographics Saskatchewan and Maintoba only represent 6.73% of the population.

As far as seats in the House of Commons is concerned Saskatchewan and Manitiba represent 9.1% of them.

Link

The poll sample size overall however is larger than most others, and as well I notice there was no polling done in the North.

Q*Bert

I suspect that you must be correct that the numbers are reweighted

[scott]

[leftcoastguy]

You could always e-mail Donna Dasko and ask her - her e-mail address is at the Environics link referred to above.

[Boze]

That "other" is mostly Green support. The Greens have been polling around 9% lately, but Environics doesn't separate them from "other."

[scott]

[snowman]

[Q*Bert]

[Stockholm]

[scott]

[Simon Vallée]

[Stockholm]

Decima also came out with a poll recently with the NDP at 21% so its no that much of an outlier.

[leftcoastguy]

Simon

Not sure where that is coming from as the Environics poll closest to the last election, as far as I could figure out, was dead on for the NDP at 18%.

[Simon Vallée]

Here's a summary of many Environics polls provided on their site:



The two latest polls seem OK, but the previous ones had the NDP in the 20s, even reaching 24 once. They have been putting it at 21% since the election ended too, whilst other polling companies have the NDP a bit lower, never beating 20%.

I'm a NDP supportere, but this shouldn't get in the way of estimating what poll is better. From what I've seen, Environics and Decima overestimate NDP support very often, maybe they don't do the thing where they ask people who answer they don't know if there is a party they are leaning towards.
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Québécois, socialist, sovereignist and metalhead.

[leftcoastguy]

Environics, Decima or any of the public polling firms as far as I know do not have links to the NDP. While Environics may have have been offbase in the past they appeared to have been exactly correct with their forecast for the NDP in the last election.

And I don't really know for sure what the explanation is for Strategic Counsel in the run up to the last election when they were showing 41%-42% support for the CPC, and 24% support for the LPC. After all Allan Gregg is a profressional pollster like the others.

All I saw yesterday is that the NDP at 21% is now within only 4% of the LPC, and there is something to be said for living in the moment.

[Erik Redburn]

This tiny 4% gap could be very significant, if the Liberals are stupid enough to put an Ignatieff or Rae over the top the whole left of centre spectrum could be their's for the taking. The Greg and Ekos-Reid polls were consistently more skewed to the right than Decima and Environics, and also tended to inflate Green support -though hard to say for sure as a certain percent always switches back election day and votes strategically, like with the NDP. Still, over twenty percent and holding means another major psychological threshold has been passed.
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Why do most believe that our after-lives will be anymore significant than our before-lives?

[Simon Vallée]

I'm not saying that environics voluntarily bias their results in favor of the NDP, I'm merely saying that they tend to overestimate it, and that is true, despite what the two polls they released last election were mostly correct on that account. The fact is that their polls have always been in the highest for NDP support amongst all polling companies and that those high results have never manifested in elections. I've been following politics intensely for more than two years and this conclusion imposed itself. I personally would like that NDP support would be as high as they say, but it's not and I've learned to deal with it, as I've learned to deal with the fact that most Canadian pollsters tend to exaggerate the Bloc's support.
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Québécois, socialist, sovereignist and metalhead.

[leftcoastguy]

The Environics poll in March, 2006 showed the NDP and the Liberals with basically the same (21%-22%) level of support.

Not only that but it appears Environics had a third poll completed on January 22, 2006, one day before the last election, but that was not published until January 30, 2006, showing Environics to be dead on for the NDP support.

[Stockholm]

[leftcoastguy]

Environics National Polling - Quebec, June 23, 2006

[scott]

[leftcoastguy]

Environics - June 23, 2006

[tweakedenigma]

Well I can only hope we keep moving closer to taking over the liberals. I hate to say it but we might need to live threw at least one more Con victory before we can take Government.
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Solidarity!

[snowman]

[cueball]

I dare say we will have to live through a whole bunch more governments before we can not have one.
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A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything.

[leftcoastguy]

Manitoba Provincial Opinion Poll by Free Press Probe Research

Party / Last Election / Jul 6, 2006 / Difference

NDP / 48% / 38% / Down 10%

CP / 37% / 43% / Up 6%

LP / 13% / 13% / Flatlined

[leftcoastguy]

Party / Last Election / May / June / July 15/ Change

NDP / 18% / 14% / 19% / !8% / No change

CPC / 36% / 35% / 36% / 37% / Up 1%

LPC / 30% / 31% / 27% / 26% / Down 4%

BQ / 10% / 10% / 09% / 11% / Up 01%

GPC / 04% / 09% / 09% / 09% / Up 5%



Link
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Thinking is so overrated.

[Jacob Two-Two]

[leftcoastguy]

JTT

Good point.

[leftcoastguy]

[ronb]

[leftcoastguy]

[DTA]

Well that 4% increase in basically the margin of error.

They are sure losing ground in Quebec fast. I wonder why? (sarcasim).

They are behind the leaderless Libs now in Ontario, which is another good sign. As they were up in Ont and Quebec for a while. I wonder what the numbers are for rest of Canada?

I am starting to believe the Conservatives (good) will not get a majority and I can see them declining once the Libs get a new leader.

[TS.]

I'm particularly concerned by NDP at 15%!
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Stockholm]

Its summer, nobody is all that focused on politics. my conclusion is that if we went to the polls today, 95% of canadians would vote the same way they did in january.

[transplant]

[leftcoastguy]

Has the NDP ever had a strong provincial presence in NB. I mean come on only 8%. What gives, eh!

[Stockholm]

The NDP has never gotten much more than 10% provincially in NB - even under the leadership of the very respected Elizabeth Weir.

Its a shame because in the last federal election the NDP took 20% of the vote in NB and Yvon Godin always gets easily re-elected in his seat - but I guess that the federal party is seen as much more of a going concern than is the provincial party.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Liberals win this one just so that I no longer have to see Bernard Lord's irritating smirk staring at me in the papers every morning.

[leftcoastguy]