EnMasse

[Dead-profile]

I've been wanting to put this up here more to start a discussion than anything else. It is my intent to understand the causes of climate change and ultimately the effects... and I think there may just be a few like minds that would be willing to discuss.

I used climate change and not global warming for a few good reasons, but we can get into that later

Climate change causes:

Increase of Greenhouse gasses. It's hard to tell how much of an effect it has had on the temperatures... For what it's worth, water in the air has the potential to be a more powerful greenhouse gas then most of the things we are releasing... However it is still an increase.

An increase in 'heat' on the earth can come from three places. Increase that is being generated on the globe (so an increase in geothermal activity could contribute). An increase in potential energy gathered from outside sources such as the sun. Not ruling anything out, the sun goes through phases and could easily be emitting more heat than it used to. Finally a decrease in the amount of energy lost to space (that gets into greenhouse gasses)

Reduction in ice caps. Water (ocean) asorbs heat while ice reflects. Less ice means more water to asorb heat. This causes a bit of a railroad effect... More heat asorbed means less ice which means more heat asorbed.

Pressure changes. Air pressure is bassically the weight of the air upon us. The hydron carbon emissions are heavier than air and the increase in these hydrocarbos means the amount of air pressure is on the rise. In addition, the formula for pressure is directly related to temperature. So this additional mass and temperature in the air is creating some interesting pressure patterns across the globe. Alot of our weather is now 'global' patterns and not local patterns any longer. Large high pressure regions heat over the pacific and move over north america. The large high pressure front brings unusually high temperatures across North America... This larger high pressure area moves on leaving an exceedingly lower pressure system to move in behind it, often dragging arctic fronts with it. This causes the Exceedingly warm record breaking temps followed by exceedingly low, near record temps soon after (often just a day after).

Ice acts as the Earths 'temperature buffer'. Basic chem (grade 10 or 11?) tells us ice changeing to water (and water chaing to vapor) takes alot of extra energy to do so. Right now the icecaps are taking enourmous amount of energy out of the atmosphere by changing states from ice to water. This amazingly huge amount of energy is having absoluteley no affect on our environment as the 'ice buffer' is taking the hit instead. Right now we'll see maybe one degree in either direction? WHen this buffer is gone, this huge amount of energy being removed by ice is going to start warming the atmosphere instead.


Effects:

The warmer weather is going to mean more active water is in the environment. Flooding and the sort is going to be much more coomon (as it has last year). I would expect (prediction # 1) this spring/summer to continue in that pattern and communities prone to flooding are going to get hit again. This is eventually going to effect more prone costal cities as the water levels rise. It will be a gradual change until a larger weather pattern devestates the region (Such as New Orleans. Any city beneath sea level should be planning for this event, included Vancouver).

Though the more devastating effect for now is going to be caused by the air pressure irregularities. The larger highs are going to be accompanied by larger low pressures (like an oscillating wave). Hurricane formation and strength is directly related to pressure... Wilma last year set a record for lowest air pressure last season and (prediction # 2) Wilma's record will be broken by atleast one hurricane, likely more. Look for one messy hurricane season this year. We wil see the presence of much larger global systems then we have in the past as well (one system that affects the weather across all of north america).

Seaonal changes. With more water in the air, temperatures will take more energy to change in either direction... So the mean temperatures (the temperature 'most common', not average) is going to be much more mild. Winter will not be as cold and summer will not be as hot. However, the larger global systems (caused by the pressure changes) are going to bring in streaks of extremes in both directons (weather patterns not natural to the region cause by exceedingly larger and larger global patterns). So prediction number 3... Mild and very wet spring/autumn's and mild but drier summer/winters with extremes in either direction.

Ice buffer removal. When the Earth loses it's ice, it loses it's ability to regulate heat. Once that ice is gone (2012-2015?), the Earth will have lost it's ability to regulate heat... Meaningfully when this does happen, we'll see an exceedingly large increase in average temperatures (5 degrees in 5 years? Hard to calculate... How much energy does it take to melt ice the size of the great lakes in a year and how much will that warm the globe instead? Either way, it'll be a big breaking point that will see the globe change in a huge way.)


Well, theres what I've got so far. Still doing internet research and if anyone was willing to share more ideas on it for me to research, I'd love to hear it. Surprisingly I'm finding the extra heat has very little to do with climate change... The biggest changes are do to the air pressure variations.


Addited to fix which weather was whether

[transplant]

[OT post edited]

[Dead-profile]

Yes yes it should be. Hehe, I looked for a while on where this should go but couldn't find a good spot for it (completely missed that one, yay me) Unfortunately I've got no clue how to move it.

[transplant]

[OT post edited]

[RealityBites]

Moved.

[Holly Stick]

Realclimate is an excellent site, run by real climatologists; the best place to educate yourself on all the aspects; CO2, other gases, water vapour, positive feedback, what is wrong with various arguments by the sceptics, etc., etc. They aim to educate the media and the public, not to get involved in politics, though politics intrudes its ugly head occasionally. Some articles are a little too technical; but there is a lot to learn here.

http://www.realclimate.org/
_________________
You want it WHEN?

[Holly Stick]

Here's an article that RealClimate linked to, that explains aspects of climate science for laypeople.

from Wall Street Journal

[transplant]

Climate change denial moonbats

Forget Iraq and the War on Terror, the right is gearing up for the real war for civilization as they know it.

Fox Analyst: Global Warming is ‘Bogus…Dreamed Up by The Greens Because They Hate Industry’

Think Progress - This weekend on the show “Cashin’ In,” Fox News analyst Jonathan Hoenig asserted that global warming was “bogus,” and “dreamed up” by environmentalists to stop economic development:

There’s no scientific proof that global warming even exists. To be honest, it’s a bogus consensus dreamed up by Greens because they hate industry. They hate advancement. They hate technology…Greens will lead us back to the stone ages. ...

[transplant]

National Review Bastardizes James Hansen’s Global Warming Research

Think Progress - Jason Steorts is on the defensive about his National Review cover story on global warming “Scare of the Century.” Steorts’s article seeks to dismiss the conclusion of thousands of climate scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that global warming is real, the result of human activity and, if unmitigated, will have grave consequences.

In his latest response to our critique, Steorts enlists James Hansen – the NASA climate scientist who was famously muzzled by the Bush administration for his outspoken views about the dangers of global warming – to bolster his point. Steorts quotes Hansen as saying “the IPCC scenarios are unduly pessimistic.”

Steorts never links to Hansen’s actual writing, but to a blog written by fellow climate skeptics characterizing Hansen’s work. Here’s what James Hansen actually said: ...

[transplant]

Hunters and Fishermen Want Action on Global Warming

LiveScience - In what might signal a turning point in environmental sentiment in America, a new poll of hunters and fishermen finds the majority think the country is on the wrong track with its energy policy and should be a leader in combating global warming.

In the poll of licensed hunters and anglers, 76 percent said global warming is occurring and 73 percent believe it is impacting or will impact hunting and fishing conditions. A full 78 percent said the solutions should involve conserving more energy, developing fuel-efficient vehicles and expanding the use of renewable sources.

The nationwide poll of 1,031 hunters and anglers was conducted by Responsive Management of Harrisonburg, Virginia for the National Wildlife Federation.

The respondents had voted for President Bush in 2004 by about a 2-to-1 margin, and half of them identified themselves as evangelical Christians.

“We are reaching a tipping point in this country where the vital sportsmen’s constituency is adding its voice to those who recognize global warming is occurring, that it poses serious threats and that action must be taken to address it,” said Larry Schweiger, president of the National Wildlife Federation. ...

----

Like it or not, Ducks Unlimited and other hunting groups have been instrumental in preserving wetland wildlife habitat. Getting these guys on-side is crucial.

[DTA]

Al Gore's new film gets thumbs up from scientists

[transplant]

This week CBC Newsworld has run three climate change docs in the 10pm slot. On Sunday it was Meltdown: A Global Warming on Passionate Eye. On Monday it was Global Warming: Bush's Climate of Fear, also on Passionate Eye. Tonight, it was Life and Times of El Niño. No doubt they will repeat at some future time. The most chilling moment was tonight, when one computer model forecast that global warming would exacerbate El Niño strength and duration, with a 1 in 6 chance result that El Niño could become permanent and turn the Amazon rain forest (what remains of it) into desert, eliminating a huge biomass that absorbs CO2.

[Noise]

[virge47]

As far as global warming is concerned I feel we are already past the tipping point and if we act quickly, then maybe we can mitigate the damage. As far as reversing the process, NOT going to happen. It has in my opinion reached the point of damage control and unfortunatetly only the countries with the resources will be able to survive over the long haul, by spending large amounts of money and resources in order to minimize the negative aspects of global warming.

[Noise]

Virge... You've hit the nail on the head. Our attempts at preventing climate change now is like farting into a hurricane hoping to slow it down. All we can do is brace for the impacts and shake our heads at those that denied (I would love to see 5 years in the future the entire US admin get brought to justice for their crimes against our earth... And Exxon).

Fortunately I live on the Canadian Praries and the most I'll have to put up with is my land turning into a desert. Las Vegas like climate isn't too bad is it? Those on the coastlines should seriously consider plans to move further inland. I'm afraid Vancouver maybe the Canadian New Orleans.

I should clarify this doesn't mean I think we should continue on these ways... We still need to limit these gasses to limit the effect they will have. However trying to 'prevent' or 'stop' global warming or global climate change has now become misleading as it implies we can undo decades of waste simply by cutting down to levels of previous years.

Ah well, Humans are destined to destroy ourselves. Atleast it's entertaining to watch.

[DTA]

[Noise]

That is very scary... I'll run this by a few geologists and get their input on it all.

The earth letting go a massive wave of methane isn't anything new... Apparently it's happened before where a giant pocket of methane around where England is today (I'm talking millions of years ago) erupted into the earths atmosphere (I like to call it the day the earth farted). There is evidence to support this sudden burst of methane into the air raised temperatures on earth for years afterwards.

Personally, I would be surprised about massive earth quakes and volcanoes forming... However, the massive release of various gasses under the glaciers is a reality I know we'll see shortly (read as the global warming snowball effect)

[elmateo]

In one of those CBC documentaries I thought they tested the methane in the ice stuff, at least in Antarctica, and didn't find high levels of methane captured in the ice? (they were taking core samples, and melting it)


Might be me watching tv going nutso though .

[Noise]

The gas technically isn't trapped in the ice... It's trapped under the ice and underneath the several layers of permafrosted ground and it's this permafrost melting and breaking up that releases the gas (the permafrost also provides the only roads into many regions too). I thought the amount actually in ice was pretty negligable.

I'm not sure how much of an issue in the antarctic though (not sure about the land mass under the ice sheets). The Arctic however..... Remember the area was once upon a time a lush tropical environement (I think that study was linked on this board even)... All that lush tropical vegitation would have remained and continued to degrade after ice built up on it. Years and years of decomposition has taken place underneath layers and layers of ice (and occasionally getting melted and stirred as the tremendous weight of the glacier move over the land). Would it stand to reason that when the ice melts, the years and years worth of decomp will be released into the air (I know I'm simplifying, but I think the example works).


Addit: The bigger antarctic fear is an entire sheet breaking off from the rock and sliding into the ocean, producing a wave which would make the tsunami of '04 seem tiny.

[leftcoastguy]

Noise

Maybe Noah's Ark was just a bit ahead of its time, eh! What about Halifax or any other coastline muncipality as well?

[morningstar]

i listened to james lovelock speaking on cbc radio and he called it climate collapse. jl is the old climatologist who wrote 'gaia' in 1979 and took tremendous heat for his ideas. he has since been [sadly] vindicated in most of his predictions.

he was sad and resigned in the interview. he thinks that humanity should be storing our most valuable information [germ theory,etc] for the possible survivors of the general collapse of all climate systems.

he is taking alot of heat again for his recent ideas but i had a horrible attack of deja vieux listening to his gentle, reasonable voice. i hope that he isn't so accurate this time as he was last time.

[Noise]

[transplant]

California's greenhouse gas emissions plan pits Arnold vs. Bush

California on brink of global warming breakthrough

Reuters - California is forging ahead with the most aggressive U.S. program to reduce global warming -- a plan that pits Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger against fellow Republican George W. Bush.

Both the governor and his state's Democratic-led legislature want to make California -- the world's eighth largest economy -- a model to follow with caps in greenhouse gas emissions that the U.S. president rejects.

State politicians still are hammering out differences over the proposed Global Warming Solutions Act. If passed, it is likely to play a role in November's vote for governor and in national politics for years to come.

Schwarzenegger -- branded "very green for a Republican" by the conservation group Sierra Club -- became an overnight hero for environmentalists a year ago by setting a goal to cut California's emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. ...

[Mr. Anonymous]

[Clog-boy]

Another effect of climate change:

Britain ready for sheep killer

[transplant]

[libertarian]

Unexpected drop in storms this season:

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006...

[DSquared]

[libertarian]

Dsquared: You are absolutely correct. I just get pissed off when a record high temp or big hurricane occurs and everyone yells "Global Warming"

Weather and climate are 2 different phenomena. The trend is the problem to concentrate on, as you say.

[transplant]

[DSquared]

[ephemeral]

[Noise]

[ephemeral]

No, that's perfectly clear. Sounds just like my grade 9 geography class.
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and on that note...

[Norse of 60]

[Noise]

I'm trying... Let me know if it warms any ^^

Oh, if you're in ontario... Prepare for the heavy rains and possibly tropical depression strength winds of Ernesto hitting you this weekend (120 hours from now or so). Srry, try as I may, I can't warm that up ^^

added... TD winds are usually sustained winds around 30-35 MPH. Personally I think it'll be just a giant rainshower by that time

[transplant]

Not sure why this is being reported again, but....

Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years

The Independent - The rapid rise in greenhouse gases over the past century is unprecedented in at least 800,000 years, according to a study of the oldest Antarctic ice core which highlights the reality of climate change.

Air bubbles trapped in ice for hundreds of thousands of years have revealed that humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere in a manner that has no known natural parallel.

Scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in Cambridge have found there have been eight cycles of atmospheric change in the past 800,000 years when carbon dioxide and methane have risen to peak levels.

Each time, the world also experienced the relatively high temperatures associated with warm, inter-glacial periods, which were almost certainly linked with levels of carbon dioxide and possibly methane in the atmosphere.

However, existing levels of carbon dioxide and methane are far higher than anything seen during these earlier warm periods, said Eric Wolff of the BAS. ...

[elmateo]

That wont shut up that lunny professor at Carleton. Though I guess thats his career talking on US TV and rightwing shows as 'proof' that global warming isn't related to humans... right he isn't even American *puke*.

[transplant]

Study Says Methane a New Climate Threat

Scientists Find New Global Warming 'Time Bomb' _ Methane Bubbling Up From Permafrost

AP - Global warming gases trapped in the soil are bubbling out of the thawing permafrost in amounts far higher than previously thought and may trigger what researchers warn is a climate time bomb.

Methane a greenhouse gas 23 times more powerful than carbon dioxide is being released from the permafrost at a rate five times faster than thought, according to a study being published Thursday in the journal Nature. The findings are based on new, more accurate measuring techniques.

"The effects can be huge," said lead author Katey Walter of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks said. "It's coming out a lot and there's a lot more to come out."

Scientists worry about a global warming vicious cycle that was not part of their already gloomy climate forecast: Warming already under way thaws permafrost, soil that has been continuously frozen for thousands of years. Thawed permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide. Those gases reach the atmosphere and help trap heat on Earth in the greenhouse effect. The trapped heat thaws more permafrost and so on.

"The higher the temperature gets, the more permafrost we melt, the more tendency it is to become a more vicious cycle" ...

[obscurantist]

Did climate change cause civilization?

[Noise]

Around 4000BC theres a giant jump in human civilization nearly unexplainable using most evolutionary theories... This looks like a rather sad attempt at using climate change to explain it though, somehow managing to equate the evolution of society to people being forced to gather around water?

I'd want to see where his research is pulled from... The Mesopotanian region was not arid in the time frame he's referencing.

[nickbrooks]

The media coverage of this topic (see previous posts) refers to a talk I gave, which was in turn based on an academic paper in Quaternary International. The paper can be downloaded from my website (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~e118/welcome.htm) - click on the "Publications" link on the right. There is plenty of evidence for regional aridification in the Mesopotamian region between about 6000 and 4000 years ago, although data from the southern Mesopotamian lowlands are scarce.
_________________
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~e118/welcome.htm

[Norse of 60]

[gram swaraj]

[StikyMikey02]

amazing post
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[Tehanu]

We don't need Viagra on EnMasse, we always hold firm. And we don't need Valium because why would we want to calm down? Buh-bye!

[Noise]

Same guys (I assume, products are the same) have been spamming alot of boards recently.

Though I disagree entirely with you on this Tehanu:

[leftcoastguy]

Tehanu

Don't be too hasty - we may need a supply of Valium for some people on the gun control thread.

[transplant]

Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial

Guardian - Britain's leading scientists have challenged the US oil company ExxonMobil to stop funding groups that attempt to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change.

In an unprecedented step, the Royal Society, Britain's premier scientific academy, has written to the oil giant to demand that the company withdraws support for dozens of groups that have "misrepresented the science of climate change by outright denial of the evidence".

The scientists also strongly criticise the company's public statements on global warming, which they describe as "inaccurate and misleading".

In a letter earlier this month to Esso, the UK arm of ExxonMobil, the Royal Society cites its own survey which found that ExxonMobil last year distributed $2.9m to 39 groups that the society says misrepresent the science of climate change. ...

[VanLuke]

I haven't had time to read the thread, so please forgive me if this has already been posted.

Extract from Monbiot's latest book:

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1875762,00...

A link from his article listing all (most?) organisations supported financially by Exxon. Every organisation listed has a clickable link leading to tons of info about them:

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/listorganizations.php

A fascinating Flash presentation with political connections etc of these wonderful "think tanks" is here:

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/

Bypass the Introduction (or after it's finished) check the menu on the top left and the motherlode of info it leads to:


You need Flash 7 but this site alone makes it worth installing it.

http://www.adobe.com/shockwave/download/download.cgi?P1_Prod_Versio...