EnMasse

[TS.]

Since the Atlantic hurricane season is underway, I figured it was time to start this thread. There's been one Atlantic tropical storm so far, but not much else. The Pacific is another story. At the moment there are three areas of interest in the eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Cecilia is off the coast of Mexico and moving west. It is currently category 1, but is expected to strengthen to category 3 by Tuesday. It is not a threat to any areas of land at this point.

Cecilia is following in the wake of tropical depression Blas, formerly tropical storm Blas. Blas is moving out and away from land, so it also is not much of a threat to cause damage.

The last is the system labelled 95L. It is currently off the coast of Costa Rica. Current models predict that it will reach tropical storm strength within 48 hours, and hurricane strength within 72. The current track is parallel to the coast, so if it turns out to be a large storm, it could bring rain to the coast of Central America.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Diane Demorney]

More rain in forecast for southern Alberta

[Chester]

the south saskatchewan through saskatoon went up a meter over the weekend and is blasting through town at 600 cubic meteres a second

[Timebandit]

Part of the transcanada highway around Maple Creek - normally one of the driest places in dusty southern Saskatchewan - has been washed away.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2010/06/19/sk-highway-closed...

[bshmr]

Well, we ain't got anything like that within biking distance but the river has been near bankful for over a week, flooding north and east though. The river drops a foot or two then we get another thunderstorm or two. oneriver-front park, within biking distance, has been closed for over a week, the other had limited access with standing water in places -- they moved in portapotties.. After storms, debris increases but this year lots of full trees seem to be floating islands moving to the less hostile beaches of the ocean.

[scott]

Tornado watch for a strip South and East of Edmonton right now.
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One struggle, many fronts.

[Timebandit]

We had a tornado watch here, too, this evening. Some wicked thunderstorms with crazy lightening as well. And more rain. I cannot remember when we have been more saturated.

[Diane Demorney]

I speak to a lot of folks all around Western Canada (for my job) and my greatest fear has been confirmed.

THERE WILL BE (NEXT TO) NO TABER CORN THIS YEAR*! :::ARGH:::


*because of the excessive rainfall in s. Alberta.
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Scissors cuts paper. Paper covers rock. Rock crushes lizard. Lizard poisons Spock. Spock smashes scissors. Scissors decapitates lizard. Lizard eats paper. Paper disproves Spock. Spock vaporizes rock. And as it always has, rock crushes scissors.

[swirrlygrrl]

Not exactly weather, but I was on the 18th floor in Ottawa today during the earthquake. As a prairie girl, pretty frightening - I'm used to wind and water (or lack of it) being the enemy, not the ground. And, since it was unexpected, at first I thought the building was collapsing.

Interestingly, our older building appeared to have no damage, while a new LEED-standard building across the street now has cracks in it, and they blew a window on the 12th floor out. My previous office building, 8 stories and less than a decade old, also broke windows. Perhaps they just don't make 'em like they used to?

[TS.]

A tornado seems to have hit Middleton in Ontario last night. As depressingly usual, it seems to have destroyed a trailer park.

On the hurricane front, Pacific hurricane Cecilia has become a category 2 storm and is expected to become category three by late this afternoon. It continues to move away from any land, so it is unlikely to be a threat to anyone. What was 95L has become tropical storm Darby, which is expected to become Pacific hurricane Darby by late this afternoon. The outer skirts of Darby are over the coast of Mexico, and likely dropping some fairly heavy rain. We will have to wait and see if it causes any damage.

In the Atlantic, we have 93L which is currently pretty well smack between Jamaica and El Salvador. Current intensity forecasts don't develop 93L into a hurricane, but do suggest that in about 48 hours it will be a strong tropical storm, and I wouldn't discount the possibility for 93L to become a weak category 1 storm, and the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. The chances of that are admittedly low, but Jeff Masters puts them at 20%, which is not negligible. If the storm becomes a tropical storm, it will be named tropical storm Alex.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Chester]

[Timebandit]

More hail and a thunderstorm that is coming down in buckets again. Holy crap, the last thing we need is more water!!!!!

Going to go check on the sump pump...

[Chester]

As much as 80mm of rain over an hour last night!

[DSquared]

Severe flooding in Yorkton, Saskatchewan
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

[TS.]

There is a new area of unsettled weather in the Gulf of Mexico that has been labelled 96L. Given that it is this undeveloped at this point, it is unlikely to get to be any stronger than a tropical depression, but this is a part of the world where a storm can go from tropical depression to hurricane very fast, so don't completely rule it out.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

I was right about 96L. It did indeed become TD2. It is about to come ashore at the border between the US and Mexico.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

We have our second named storm of the Atlantic season, tropical storm Bonnie. Bonnie is currently over the southern Bahamas and is projected to pass through the Florida straight and into the Gulf of Mexico. Current track projections take it right over the site of the oil spill. On the upside, Bonnie is not expected to become a hurricane, but rather is projected to stay a tropical storm through landfall.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

The Atlantic is firing up again. Currently, Tropical Storm Igor is moving across the Atlantic, and is looking to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. It is predicted to become a large and powerful storm, category 4, by Tuesday afternoon. The good news is that the same steering patterns that have kept almost all of the storms this season away from land should keep operating to steer Igor away from land.

In the southern Caribbean, Invest 92L has sprung up off the coast of Venezuela. It moved over the Lesser Antilles and is currently dropping some rain on Puerto Rico. It is likely to become a tropical depression overnight tonight, and there is a pretty good chance of it becoming a Tropical Storm and then a hurricane over the next 48 hours. Most of the track predictions take it into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday as a category 2/3 storm.

Finally, a new tropical wave has just moved off the coast of Africa, designated Invest 93L. Current winds are about 25 mph. Igor first got organized in the same area as 93L, so it will be interesting to see if 93L does the same things Igor did. If it follows too closely behind Igor, it will have to deal with the colder waters that Igor will churn up, and the upper level outflows from Igor will possibly create hostile wind-shear conditions for 93L.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Igor has become a category 4 hurricane well ahead of schedule. Igor currently has sustained winds of 140 mph, making it a mid-Category 4. The SHIPS intensity forecasting model is calling for sustained winds to reach 155 mph, or the borderline between Category 4 and Category 5 in 72 hours. Fortunately, all of the track forecasts are keeping Igor well away from any land. At this point the only area looking to be in any danger of a brush with Igor is Bermuda.

92L is still chugging along, but hasn't developed. It is now south of the island of Hispanola. Forecasting models are still making it a hurricane, but only just, within 72 hours.

93L has become Tropical Depression 12. It is sitting just south of the Cape Verde islands, and is expected to run pretty much due north-west. Intensity forecasts make it a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. It shouldn't be any major threat to land.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Just a quick update to say that Igor continues to intensify more rapidly than expected, with forecasts now saying that it will be a cat. 5 storm by this afternoon. Igor is expected to remain a cat. 4/5 storm until at least Friday afternoon, when it is expected to be downgraded to cat. 3. Cat. 3 is still a "major" hurricane though.

Tropical Depression 12 has become Tropical Storm Julia, the 10th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasts continue to make Julia a hurricane by Wednesday morning, with the track continuing to be pretty much due north-west. The good news with Julia is that she will be staying north of the warmer waters in the Atlantic, and so will not have the same kind of opportunities that have fed most of the other hurricanes this year.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Igor continues to be a category 4 hurricane. It never wound up making it to category 5. Current sustained winds are 135 mph, just inside the lower boundary of category 4. Igor is expected to remain a category 4 storm for another 72 hours at which point it is expected to begin a steady weakening. He has now taken direct aim at Bermuda, and the centre of the "cone of uncertainty" for the track sits directly over top of Bermuda for Sunday morning. Fortunately, by the time Igor gets to Bermuda, he is expected to be reduced to a category 2 storm, though a strong category 2 storm. When Igor was at maximum intensity, he was the strongest hurricane of the year, and in fact the most intense storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007, which reached category 5. Dr. Jeff Masters, a climatologist and meteorologist specializing in tropical cyclones predicts that Newfoundland could get a close brush with Igor, though by that time intensity would likely be down substantially.

Tropical Storm Julia has now become Hurricane Julia. She is not expected to impact any land areas or to intensify beyond category 1, and should be downgraded to a tropical storm by Saturday morning again.

As an aside, Igor looked yesterday, and continues to look today, extremely impressive on both visual and infrared imaging. He has an extremely well defined eye, and powerful upper level outflow. If you didn't know how destructive he has the capacity to be, the imagery would be beautiful.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Well, after all Invest 92L finally did something with itself. Over the course of the day it become Tropical Storm Karl, the twelfth (which is a weird word to try to spell) named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Karl is now pretty much due south of the western tip of Cuba and is expected to make landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the day on Wednesday as a tropical storm. It is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression during its transit of the peninsula, but then pop out into the Gulf of Mexico and return to tropical storm force before hitting the Gulf coast of Mexico on Friday evening.

Igor continues to be Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph, right in the middle of category 4. On satellite imagery it continues to have the classic appearance of a high-intensity hurricane. Igor is now moving north-west, and is beginning to recurve out to sea. It is starting to look more and more likely that Bermuda will take a fairly direct hit from Igor at Category 3 strength overnight on Saturday.

Hurricane Julia continues to putter along at category 1 strength moving north-west. She is still far from land, and is not much of a threat to make landfall before she dissipates.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[bshmr]

A tangent: Saw a blurb that Igor had 170 degrees F? difference between the ocean and its clouds. Apparently, that was more than expected. IR image was included.

[TS.]

That doesn't sound too unlikely. Major hurricanes will often have that kind of a temperature differential, which is why infrared imaging works so well. It conveniently also allows hurricanes to be monitored by satellites through the night when they are beyond the range of land-based radar. If you are looking for IR imagery of hurricanes, a fantastic website for all things hurricane is www.wunderground.com/tropical. An excellent archive of hurricane images, including East Pacific hurricanes, central and West Pacific typhoons and Indian Ocean cyclones can be found at the website for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch which is hosted by Colorado State University, home to an important institute studying hurricanes.

BTW, Igor's sustained winds are once again at the very borderline between categories 4 and 5. If the sustained winds go up even one more mile per hour, Igor will be a category 5 storm. Everything I've seen points to Igor having gone through an eyewall renewal cycle over the last 24-36 hours. That would explain the drop away from the cat 4/5 borderline and now the return to it.

Julia has made it to category 2, which I have to confess I did not expect to happen. She will shortly be moving into higher levels of wind shear due to Igor however, and will likely be back to category 1 pretty soon. Looking at the infrared satellite loops of Julia over the last couple hours is actually really cool. You can see the heavy thunderstorms associated with Julia getting organized and taking on a much more classic hurricane form as she intensifies. Very cool.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[walterharris]

Hey where are yall getting those weather maps. Way better than twc.

[TS.]

An excellent site for tracking tropical cyclones is www.wunderground.com/tropical From there you can link to most of the publicly available information about any particular cyclone.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

A major tropical cyclone is coming ashore in Myanmar/Burma pretty much now. Cyclone Giri is the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar, including the storm that caused so much devastation a couple years ago. On the up-side, it isn't coming ashore in the Irrawady delta like the last one did, so there is less danger of a major storm surge and flooding.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Wow TS...so nice to see this still going and I must admit, you've gotten good at this.

The Ensemble models are a neat addition to wunderground...have you found them very accurate?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[Senor Magoo]

Anyone a fan of "As Time Goes By"? Every time I see this thread on TAT I think of Mrs. Bale.
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ø¤°`°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°`°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°°¤ø,

[TS.]

[Searosia]

[TS.]

Once the "white line" emerges on the ensemble model, it gets more useful, but until then I don't really see what the point is.

As for Igor, you must be thinking of another storm. Igor was a tropical depression/storm for the better part of a week and then blew up very suddenly into a cat. 4. In fact, I can't find in the Wunderground archive any storm matching the pattern of skipping the depression and storm steps. You might be thinking of a different year.

You are probably right about Richard, given how low the SSTs are, but there is a little pocket of 29 degree water right in Richard's course. If the storm slows down, he mights spend long enough over that pocket to reach tropical storm strength again, especially considering that even after the transit of the Yucatan, Richard is still packing sustained winds of 39 mph, so right on the depression/storm borderline. The limiting factor will be, as you say, though, the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity Richard has lost.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Looks like you were right about Richard, Searosia. Still just a tropical depression and well into the Gulf by now. That little pocket of warm water didn't do anything to power the storm up.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

I think I might have gotten tricked by wunderground...they never properly link hurricanes to the TD that spawned them until they are in the archives. I think I looked a t a hurricane when the TD that spawned it wasn't in it's history yet. meh.

The prediction on Richard was somewhat based on it's open circulation and proximity to land...I was actually doubting myself a bit for it as some of the models had it pulling off the mexican coast and heading towards florida...then it could (potentially) close it's circulation and regenerate into atleast a tropical storm. That closed circulation is key for a storm to regenerate...but the models were keeping it too close to land and I'd be hard pressed to see closed circulation over land without heavy heavy thunderstorms to power it.

Err...HWRF has the storm taking an abrupt 180 and heading south to the pacific...lil weird. It was meant to be a new highly accurate model coming in last season (err..2 seasons ago?). Have you found it very accurate TS?


Edit to add:
May as well comment on Chaba...it looks lik it's about to drag a large mass of dry air into the system from the NW of it, which could result in the eye wall falling apart and regenerating...but it might be too close to Japan for another eyewall cycle. Might work well to severely weaken the storm before landfall....hopefully.

And tropical cyclone one...wtf is up with that? It's just barely in warm enough water and seems to be curving back north giving it a path that would suggest a Madagascar landfall. I've never seen that before...I wonder if it's precidented, or if we just haven't been tracking storms in the region well enough to know.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

I'll cop to not having paid enough attention to know if HWRF has been particularly accurate. I haven't been all that impressed with the track forecasting generally this year though. Richard's circulation looks to be closing from what I can see, so if it keeps moving slowly, it might have time to regenerate into a tropical storm before making landfall.

As for Chaba, where are you getting the air moisture data? I can't find it on Wunderground.

On TC One, it is still just inside the boundary for SSTs that can sustain a cyclone. I wouldn't expect any intensification though. I don't see any indication of recurvature northward, it looks rather like it is going to run to the west, which would be consistent with the prevailing winds in that part of the southern hemisphere.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

For Chaba...you can kinda see it in the infra-red on wunderground I guess, but it's a little more obvious and detailed on the japanese sites. Japan moniters west pacific storms much better than wunderground I find... try this?

I think the el-nino/la nina cycles heavily impact the models...the closer to a nuetral event it is, the further off the models are.



cyclone one...I thought it had a southern path earlier that was taking it outside of the 27 degree boundary, so my northward comment was referring towards the path being pushed back to west towards madagascar. Still odd, have you seen a storm on that part of the globe before?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

Yeah, Madagascar sees storms every couple years or so. I think I recall one in 2008. One of the handy things about having all of these threads is that I can go back and check earlier years.

ETA: There was one in 2008 that hit fairly hard, and they kick up in the southern Indian ocean from time to time.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Heh, I barely recognize my earlier posts as me!..but you're right it is nice to have the running archive. It's a lil weird...is it natural to have a certain degree of hostility towards an inexperienced version of yourself?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

[TS.]

Uh oh. Chaba is going to be a problem. It has intensified to category 2, and is now looking at a direct run up the Ryukyu Islands. Further intensification is predicted, to category 4, likely category 3 while moving through the islands. A direct hit on mainland Japan is also predicted.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Amazingly well formed eye on chaba...the bulk of the cloud mass to the south of it is a bit different, but it seems to be powering it well. I was thinking the storm would be moving faster and not have the time to strengthen as it has...guess I was badly wrong on that call.

Not sure if it'll make it beyond a Cat 3 storm...but still, that's heavy heavy winds for landfall.

See any mention of storm surge on it?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

Haven't seen any call on storm surge, but given how slowly the storm is moving, there will be a fair build up of wave energy. That said, the bathymetry is promising, since the islands are very close to the edge of the continental shelf (see here). I'd guess that the two factors may cancel each other out, leading to a roughly average storm surge for a cat. 3 storm.

And by the way, the ensemble model is taking Chaba on a pretty much direct course for Tokyo.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Interesting shelf info (I had to look up what bathymetry meant ). Bit of a concern on it coming up on that shelf...hurricanes will kill themselves by churning up colder water from the depths (and I beleive models take this into account). Moving into shallow water might screw around with the intensity forecast...

I'm not all too familiar with the southern coast of Japan as far as how vulnerable it might be to a high storm surge, though I imagine this is consistent enough that authorities there will be atleast semi prepared. It's looking like it might be down to a tropical storm by landfall...but the winds are never really a concern compared to the surge. I'll continue to hit the Japanese sites until I find something...if there's something to find...and I'll post on here.

umm any idea what the japanese word for storm surge is?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

This is what Google Translate gives as the Japanese for "storm surge": 高潮

But I'd exercise some caution, since I googled that and it also seems to mean "orgasm." I got some rather unexpected sites, as you might imagine.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Thanks TS, now I have to explain to my coworkers why I started laughing
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

A good news/bad news update on Chaba. The bad news is that the storm is now a super typhoon and equivalent in strength to a borderline cat. 4 storm. The good news is that the area of the strongest winds is actually a pretty small area, and it may wind up missing the Ryukyu Islands. The islands are already under outer spiral bands, but it now looks like the eye will stay offshore as the track of the storm is now pretty much due north-east. The ensemble model track is also shifting, with the likelihood of a direct hit on the centre of Tokyo declining. The track now predicted would take Chaba right up the gut of Tokyo Bay with landfall in Chiba (yes, the storm is Chaba and the city is Chiba), which is part of the port of Tokyo as a tropical storm. Likely as Chaba moves north it will make the cold-core transition to a subtropical storm and expand substantially, much as Hurricane Noel did when it hit Nova Scotia in 2008. This will likely bring tropical storm force winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area (including Yokohama and Kawasaki) as well as Kanagawa. All of this is still three or four days off though, so the track may continue to shift south-east, away from the Japanese mainland.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Triple invests on the atlantic is interesting...Find the entire atlantic sat pic on wunderground, it's kinda impressive as completely clear except for 3 swirls of clouds. Invest 91 is the only one that could become something...hard to tell at this time.

Chaba is a sight to behold now...90 nm radius for the hurricane winds is massive. A 10nm eye opened up as well...10 nautical miles is 16-18ish KM? thats pretty massive for an eye, though it's clouded over now.

I'm still surprised this hit a cat 4 storm...I didn't think that strength was likely.

from the advisory on Chaba on wunderground:

[TS.]

It looks like the track on Chaba is still shifting south-east. The ensemble model is now taking the centre of the storm just off the coast of Japan. Tokyo and surrounding area are still likely to get some fairly serious winds, since I stand by my prediction that by the time Chaba goes through the area it will have gone through the cold-core transition and be affecting a massive area.

The radius of hurricane force winds has contracted substantially, down to 40-45nm or 74-83km, which is more in keeping with what I would expect from a storm like this. Tropical storm force winds are reaching out 75-80nm from the eye, or 139-148km.

Maximum sustained winds are at 126mph, or just below the cat. 3/cat. 4 borderline.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Invest 90 and 92 are really unlikely to form storms, though 92 might hit tropical depression status if it's lucky. All the models have the storms dying off and transitioning to extratropical storms heading straight at the UK. The remains of invest 90 will rain on em, followed closely by the remains of 92 (whihc might be a decent storm still).

The recent run on Invest 91 has the 120h mark at 100+mph winds now...I can't see anything preventing this storm from forming either, it's a glass bowl in the atlantic right now and pretty much perfect conditions for it's growth. We'll likely see some damage to carribean islands by the looks of it. Hard to call if it'll make it to the gulf, or get pushed up the US eastern seaboard...too early to tell. This could be a monster storm in 5 or so days. It's already begining to take shape and forming the thunderstorms needed to power it through...though if it dips a bit south, south american land might interfere with it's developement.

I'm still surprised with Chaba's intensity...both in wind speed and sheer size. It did suck in that dry air I was referring too, but it pretty much got integrated into the storm just as it strengthened to cat 4. A few lessons from Chaba for the future I guess. I wonder if moving into shallow...shallower?...water helped strengthen it at all, or if we had different factors coming into play.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

Chaba has been moving over an area of 28-29 degree water, so there there was a decent amount of thermal energy there to fuel intensification.

I'm looking at the infrared imaging right now, and the area of heavy thunderstorms is surprisingly compact. This may wind up being a primarily wind event for the mainland areas of Japan by the time Chaba gets there. Looking at the infrared loops, it is stunning how the high-convection areas of Chaba have contracted in the last twelve hours or so. That might be the impact of the dry air you were talking about Searosia.

Also, Chaba's speed is starting to pick up, with movement now north-east at 14mph. Max sustained winds are now at 125mph, but there are gusts to 155mph, or the upper edge of cat. 4. This is still a very strong cat. 3.

As for Invest 91, I agree with you Searosia. I can't really see anything that would inhibit the growth of this system into a hurricane, and in fact sustained winds are now only 4-5mph below the tropical storm threshold. 91's path is also taking it right over the warmest areas of the Caribbean for the time being. People in the Lesser Antilles should be getting ready for a blow.

The one limiting factor I can think of for 91 is that it is a bit difficult to see if it has established closed circulation. If it has that, then it really is on the fast track to intensification. Wind shear is very low as well, 5-10kts currently, and probably not any more than 15 as it makes its way into the Caribbean.

There is a ton of water vapour over the southern Gulf of Mexico, though I wonder if that is the remains of Richard that I am seeing there.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson