 |
EnMasse
This place is all that is left.
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
|
 Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2010 7:34 pm Post subject: UK Politics Thread |
 |
|
Since the UK has to go for a general election in a few months, what better time to start a thread on the topic?
BBC Politics
The Guardian
Telegraph
Not sure of what stories would be good to start this off, so anybody who's knowledgeable about British politics is more than welcome to get the ball rolling.
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 18, 2010 7:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I have to confess, in November I thought that the Conservatives were going to have a walk-over victory. Now it looks like the election could produce a minority government. Much as I despise much of what the Blair/Brown New Labour government has done, from everything I have seen, the Conservatives would be far worse. I have been pleased that the Labour party appears to have moved left somewhat over the last few months. That seems to have coincided with the rise in their support, so let's hope that they learn from that and carry on with their move to the left if they win the election.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 11:11 am Post subject: |
|
|
Are Tory insiders having second thoughts about Cameron?
| Quote: | A journalist who filmed an interview about gay rights with a stumbling, confused David Cameron yesterday said the Tory leader's press chiefs begged him not to release the embarrassing footage. Mr Cameron got so tied in knots he pleaded for the camera to be turned off so he could gather his thoughts.
[...]
"We all knew David Cameron asking for an interview to be temporarily halted was the story. I'd been there before with politicians and senior public figures - but not with the man who could be Prime Minister in a few weeks time.
"The Tory leader had already left the room and I was eager to get out as quickly as possible. I knew what could be coming next. Pleas, arm-twisting and then possibly threats if we didn't use the video material in a way which would put him in the best light."
[...]
Tory activists yesterday described Mr Cameron's interview as a disaster - and warned he faced humiliation in the coming TV debates with Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg.
One wrote on the website Conservative Home: "Cameron was absolutely appalling. He was made to look a bumbling fool, unable to answer the most basic questions and tried to terminate the interview.
"Viewers can only conclude he struggles to think on his feet and deal with unprepared questions. Brown and Clegg can't wait for the TV debates. He has become a liability. Everyone I know cringes when he's on screen." |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2010 12:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
Mark May 6 2010 on your calendars:
| Quote: | Political leaders have headed off on the campaign trail after Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced the UK general election would be held on 6 May.
He said he would seek a "clear" mandate to continue the "road to recovery", as Labour bids for a fourth term.
David Cameron, whose Conservative Party has been ahead in the polls, said they offered "hope" and a "fresh start". |
Let the humiliation of the British Labour Party begin.
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 13, 2010 11:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Tories launch manifesto:
| Quote: | Cameron, who needs to secure the biggest swing to his party since 1931 to win a parliamentary majority of just one, said the Tories could now appeal beyond their core support.
"We stand for the working people that Labour has abandoned with their jobs tax and their waste," he said. "We stand for the idealists that the Liberal Democrats will inevitably disappoint because they cannot win this race."
The Tories who need to gain 116 seats to form a government hope the central pitch of the party's manifesto will win back middle Britain voters who have abandoned them over the past decade.
Cameron summed up his "big society" theme, which will involve the most extensive devolution of power in a generation, by issuing an invitation to the British people to join him in governing the country.
"Manifestos, policies, acts of parliament all these things are powerful, but not as powerful as acts of people," he said, warning that Britain could only deal with its debts and broken society if people joined together. |
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
"We stand for the idealists that the Liberal Democrats will inevitably disappoint because they cannot win this race."
How's that for a selling-point? 'Give up on your ideals early, and get in on the ground floor with unprincipled sell-outs.'
Oh, wait... that's been the selling pitch of the Liberal Party of Canada for decades now, hasn't it?
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2010 7:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
Liberal Democrat supporters coordinate strategic votes through Facebook
| Quote: | | LibDem supporters in the UK have started a Facebook group to coordinate action among LibDem supporters who might vote "strategically" for another party in the upcoming election. In the UK (as in most countries), voting for minority parties is seen by many as a "waste" because your candidate is unlikely to win. This, of course, is self-fulfilling -- if everyone votes strategically, even popular candidates don't get elected. Using the net to make contact with other supporters is a smart way to overcome the collective action problem. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2010 2:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
It isn't a "smart" way to overcome the problem, it is an adaptive way of overcoming the problem. A smart way of overcoming the problem would be to put in proportional representation.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2010 6:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Lib Dems introduce LGBT manifesto but it doesn't include pledge of full gay marriage rights, as promised
| Quote: | | The Liberal Democrats who launched their main election manifesto today have also published a specific manifesto for LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered) voters. But the policy document does not contain a manifesto commitment to introduce full gay marriages that [Lib-Dem leader] Nick Clegg told PinkNews.co.uk readers he supported. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2010 7:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
JK Rowling on Britain's Conservative "nasty" Party
| Quote: | JK Rowling has written a stirring Times editorial rebutting the UK Conservative party's new kinder, gentler face. The Tories are trying to shake their reputation as the "nasty party," and to downplay their commitment to eroding services and projects that encourage social mobility and a decent standard of life for all people, but Rowling isn't buying it:
| Quote: | I had become a single mother when my first marriage split up in 1993. In one devastating stroke, I became a hate figure to a certain section of the press, and a bogeyman to the Tory Government. Peter Lilley, then Secretary of State at the DSS, had recently entertained the Conservative Party conference with a spoof Gilbert and Sullivan number, in which he decried "young ladies who get pregnant just to jump the housing list". The Secretary of State for Wales, John Redwood, castigated single-parent families from St Mellons, Cardiff, as "one of the biggest social problems of our day". (John Redwood has since divorced the mother of his children.) Women like me (for it is a curious fact that lone male parents are generally portrayed as heroes, whereas women left holding the baby are vilified) were, according to popular myth, a prime cause of social breakdown, and in it for all we could get: free money, state-funded accommodation, an easy life.
An easy life. Between 1993 and 1997 I did the job of two parents, qualified and then worked as a secondary school teacher, wrote one and a half novels and did the planning for a further five. For a while, I was clinically depressed. To be told, over and over again, that I was feckless, lazy -- even immoral -- did not help...
Nobody who has ever experienced the reality of poverty could say "it's not the money, it's the message". When your flat has been broken into, and you cannot afford a locksmith, it is the money. When you are two pence short of a tin of baked beans, and your child is hungry, it is the money. When you find yourself contemplating shoplifting to get nappies, it is the money. If Mr Cameron's only practical advice to women living in poverty, the sole carers of their children, is "get married, and we'll give you £150", he reveals himself to be completely ignorant of their true situation. |
|
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 3:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
Poll: UK's ruling Labour Party pushed into third place
| Quote: | Britain's ruling Labour Party was pushed into third place by the Liberal Democrats after the country's first televised leaders' debate, the latest opinion poll showed on Friday.
The Daily Sun/YouGov poll showed support for Labour down 3 points at 28 percent, the Liberal Democrats up 8 points on 30 percent and the main opposition Conservatives down 4 points on 33 percent,
The poll was a boost for Britain's third biggest political party and its leader Nick Clegg, ahead of the May 6 parliamentary election. It followed a well-received performance by Clegg in Thursday's historic live debate, in which the 43-year-old was perceived by voters and commentators to have emerged better than Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Conservative leader David Cameron with a relaxed and confident appearance.
If the latest poll were applied nationally, Labour would be the largest party, but it would fall short of a majority under Britain's simple majority electoral system.
[...]
Cameron's party has been ahead in the polls for months but its lead over Labour has narrowed since January. He was expected to do well in the debate because of his ability as an orator, often delivering speeches without notes.
However, he was overshadowed by Clegg and observers suggested, even before the Sun/YouGov poll was published, that he would have to be more critical of the Liberal Democrats' policies in the next two televised debates, on international affairs and the economy, if he was to end Labour's 13 years in power. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
According to the seat calculator on the BBC's election website, the YouGov poll would produce a Labour victory. According to it, the results of such an election would be the following:
Conservatives: 246 seats
Labour: 276 seats
Liberal Democrats: 99 seats (the Lib Dems seem to have a massively inefficient vote)
Other (mostly Democratic Unionists, Scottish National Party, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru - Party of Wales): 29 seats
In such a circumstance, the Liberal Democrats would be king makers, as they would hold the balance of power.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
New polling continues to confirm that the UK election is now a three way race (at least in terms of vote share - the Lib Dems would need a massive vote share to even be the biggest party, never mind win a majority). For each of these polls, I've included the numbers projection from the BBC seat calculator.
ComRes:
Conservative - 31% (238 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 29% (104 seats)
Labour - 27% (279 seats)
Other - 13% (29 seats)
ICM:
Conservative - 34% (257 seats)
Labour - 29% (285 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 27% (79 seats)
Other - 10% (29 seats)
YouGov:
Conservative - 33% (239 seats)
Labour - 30% (291 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 29% (91 seats)
Other: 8% (29 seats)
As a point of comparison, here is the vote split for the 2005 election that resulted in the just-dissolved House of Commons with a 48-seat labour majority:
Labour - 36.1% (349 seats)
Conservative - 33.2% (210 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 22.9% (62 seats)
Other - 8% (29 seats)
What this tells us is that even under the current best poll numbers for the Conservatives, the outcome is likely to be a Labour minority government, probably supported by the Liberal Democrats. The BBC seat calculator tells us that for the Liberal Democrats to win a minority government, the Liberal Democrats need Labour and the Conservatives to fall to roughly 26 and 27% each, and for the Lib Dems to take roughly 38%. And that yields only a bare minority over Labour, with the Conservatives in third. For a majority government, the Liberal Democrats need a result in the range of 41% with Labour and the Conservatives at the 25% level.
If Nick Clegg has another performance at the foreign policy debate like he had at the domestic policy debate, it is not out of the question that the Liberal Democrats could spike to this level, given that after the first debate they climbed about 8%, with 6% coming off of the Conservatives and 2% coming off of Labour. If that were to be repeated, the Conservatives would fall to about 27% and Labour to about 27%, with the Lib Dems climbing to about 37%. The extra 1% for Labour in such a situation however, appears to be something of a tipping point, as it represents almost 30 seats to Labour directly to the Lib Dems.
If those kinds of numbers do start showing up, one of two effects would be likely to occur: a bandwagon effect pushing the Lib Dems to a majority, or voters withdrawing from the possibility of such a majority, handing largest party status back to Labour. I think ultimately a Liberal Democrat majority is unlikely, but a Liberal Democrat minority may actually be even more unlikely.
David Cameron can't like any of this at all, considering that 80% of the Lib Dem growth is coming right from the "change" and "anti-Labour" voters that had been supporting Cameron. His troubles are likely a combination of the stunning performance of Nick Clegg at the debate, and the fact that Cameron has had to be very publicly shoring up his right win, which has driven moderates and centrists to the Liberal Democrats. Cameron was likely seeing a substantial risk of his right wing sliding to the Little Englanders of the UKIP and the English Democrats. He is, frankly, caught between a rock and hard place.
Edited to correct the mistake discussed below.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson
Last edited by TS. on Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:46 pm; edited 2 times in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 4:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I think you switched Labour and Liberal Democrat in the ComRes poll. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
No, I didn't. ComRes has Labour in third.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
| And the BBC seat calculator gives them 279 seats with those numbers? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:02 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Labour Under Fire as LGBT Manifesto Ignores Marriage Equality
| Quote: | | The Labour Party has been criticised by equality campaigners after launching an LGBT Manifesto that fails to commit the party to legal equality for same-sex marriages. But Labour are keen to emphasise how far they have advanced the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people while in government. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Raos wrote: | | And the BBC seat calculator gives them 279 seats with those numbers? |
Ah, I see. I switched the seat numbers, not the vote percentage. Whoops. 
And just an update with some new numbers today show that the Liberal Democrat surge is continuing, with YouGov now putting the Liberal Democrats in the lead.
ICM:
Conservative - 33% (-1) (245 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 30% (+3) (100 seats)
Labour - 28% (-1) (278 seats)
Other - 9% (-1) (29 seats)
YouGov:
Liberal Democrat - 33% (+4) (134 seats)
Conservative - 32% (-1) (246 seats)
Labour - 26% (-4) (241 seats)
Other - 9% (+1) (134 seats)
Interestingly, the YouGov poll is the first one in a while that the BBC seat calculator predicts would result in a Conservative victory, though I would guess that the Lib Dems would be more likely to work with Labour than with the Conservatives.
It may be rather soon that we will see whether or not there will be a Lib Dem bandwagon effect.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
more here
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yeah, the extent to which the constituencies in the UK are gerrymandered in Labour's favour is something that should be looked into. It is ridiculous that one party's vote should be so much more efficient than the other two.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rufus Polson
Purple Library Guy
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3483
Location: SFU and/or the college of Riddlemastery at Caithnard
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 5:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Agreed. And the situation for the Lib Dems is just ridiculous--at the same vote totals they're ending up with less than half the seats of the Conservatives, let alone Labour.
Presumably seats must be very polarized in terms of Labour vs. Conservative, while Lib Dem votes are fairly similar across the board.
Incidentally, what exactly are the Lib Dems? I mean, they seem to have started to rise more or less when Labour lurched to the right, so I originally thought they were kind of occupying the space Labour had vacated on the left-ish. But since then it often seems like in theory at least they're supposed to be in between Labour on the "left" and the Tories on the right. But where is the political room to exist between Labour and the Conservatives? Are the Lib Dems basically "The same as Labour only we claim to be less corrupt because we've never been in office" or what? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 5:31 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| According to Political Compass they're economically a little to the left of Labour, but socially substantially more progressive, close to our NDP. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I think they probably occupy a space similar to the right wing of the NDP in Canada. If Labour was actually still a party of labour, I would be hoping for them to win. As it is, the Lib Dems are probably the best hope among the three major parties.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rufus Polson
Purple Library Guy
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3483
Location: SFU and/or the college of Riddlemastery at Caithnard
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| If they do end up with a minority government with the Lib Dems holding the balance of power (no matter who forms that government), I would expect the Lib Dems to have very strong motivation to push for proportional representation. What with the precedent of Scotland, I wonder how their chances would be? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
voice of the damned
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 6139
Location: slandered, libeled
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Rufus Polson wrote: | Agreed. And the situation for the Lib Dems is just ridiculous--at the same vote totals they're ending up with less than half the seats of the Conservatives, let alone Labour.
Presumably seats must be very polarized in terms of Labour vs. Conservative, while Lib Dem votes are fairly similar across the board.
Incidentally, what exactly are the Lib Dems? I mean, they seem to have started to rise more or less when Labour lurched to the right, so I originally thought they were kind of occupying the space Labour had vacated on the left-ish. But since then it often seems like in theory at least they're supposed to be in between Labour on the "left" and the Tories on the right. But where is the political room to exist between Labour and the Conservatives? Are the Lib Dems basically "The same as Labour only we claim to be less corrupt because we've never been in office" or what? |
I think your quote here was the more accurate summation, at least of their origins...
| Quote: | | But since then it often seems like in theory at least they're supposed to be in between Labour on the "left" and the Tories on the right. |
They're a merger of the Liberals and the Social Democrats, the latter being a group that broke away from Labour in the 1980s, at least in part, as I recall, because they thought Labour was too left-wing on certain issues. From wikipedia...
| Quote: | The policies of the SDP emphasised a middle position between perceived extremes of Thatcherism and the Labour Party. The SDP favoured Thatcherite economic reforms during the 1980s (such as anti-trade union legislation and the privatisation of state industries), but took a more welfarist position than the Conservative Party, being more sceptical of Conservative welfare reforms (particularly regarding the Health Service).[2]
|
And there was a byzantine history after that of alliance and eventual merger with the Liberals, leading to the Lib Dems we see today.
[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)]link[/url] |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
As Raos noted, they are to the right of Labour (or at least where Labour claims to be - where they actually are is a different story) on economic issues, and to the left of Labour on social issues. Another aspect of their being perceived as being left-wing is probably the fact that they are the only party that is willing to decommission the trident nuclear missiles.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 9:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
There is a new poll out today from YouGov:
Conservative - 33% (+1) (253 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 31% (-3) (112 seats)
Labour - 27% (+1) (256 seats)
Other - 9% (-) (29 seats)
If a Lib Dem drop of 3% or there abouts shows up in the polls from ComRes and ICM, then we may be looking at the beginning of a pullback of support from the Lib Dems. But this is just one poll. Even with a six percent deficit in support and finishing third in the nationwide vote, Labour would still lead the next House of Commons. FPTP really is perverse.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:34 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Today Populus and YouGov have both released new polls:
Populus:
Conservative - 31% (236 seats)
Liberal Democrat - 30% (109 seats)
Labour - 28% (276 seats)
Other - 9% (29 seats)
YouGov:
Liberal Democrat - 34% (151 seats)
Conservative - 31% (229 seats)
Labour - 26% (241 seats)
Other - 9% (29 seats)
These seat predictions are starting to show an outrageous situation in which the Liberal Democrats possibly finish first in the popular vote and yet wind up with at least 100 less seats than the biggest party.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 2:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
Heat on Clegg in UK election debate, no clear win
| Quote: | The two main candidates to lead Britain after a May 6 election sought on Thursday to fend off a surprise challenge from a smaller party in a lively TV debate, but there was no undisputed winner.
Frontrunner David Cameron of the center-right opposition Conservatives and Prime Minister Gordon Brown of the Labour Party were under pressure to halt the rise of Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg after he outshone them in an earlier debate.
"An awful lot of fire was turned on Clegg, and I think they got him on the ropes, but not on the canvas," Jon Tonge, politics professor at Liverpool University, told Reuters.
Thursday's clash, on issues from Afghanistan to Europe and pensions to immigration, was the second of a series of three planned for the campaign -- the first time in British history that the main party leaders have taken part in TV debates.
Two snap polls after Thursday's contest gave conflicting results, though both suggested that the performances were more balanced than a week ago when Clegg was the clear winner.
A YouGov poll for the Sun newspaper put Cameron in first place with 36 percent, Clegg in second with 32 percent, and Brown last with 29 percent. A ComRes poll for ITV News put Clegg ahead with 33 percent, with Brown and Cameron both on 30. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Common People α la David Cameron
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
from here
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2010 6:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Clegg: we can do a deal with Labour. As long as Brown's not part of the deal
| Quote: | The head of Britain's third party indicated on Tuesday that the departure of Prime Minister Gordon Brown could open the way to a coalition with ruling Labour if next week's election is not clear-cut.
Surveys indicate no party will secure an overall parliamentary majority on May 6 for the first time since 1974 -- a result Prime Minister Brown's Labour party and his main rivals, the Conservatives, are desperate to avoid. Such an outcome would be a boon for the long-overshadowed Liberal Democrats, or Lib Dems, whose support could be pivotal in forming a new government.
The centrist party -- which has jumped into second from third place in the popular vote in many polls -- and center-left Labour are seen as potential partners. But weekend comments from Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg suggested he would reject Labour if they came third in the vote.
Britain's winner-takes-all voting system means Labour will almost certainly get more seats than the Lib Dems, and could even outscore the center-right Conservatives, with a smaller national percentage of votes.
Speaking on BBC radio on Tuesday, Clegg indicated that he would not work with Gordon Brown as prime minister, but had not ruled out an alliance with Labour, in power since 1997. "I think many people ... would find it a bit peculiar that someone could remain in Number 10 (the prime minister's residence) even though they've come last in terms of the votes cast," he said.
[...]
Brown said it was too early to speculate on who Labour would ally with if there was no clear result. "We're going for a majority," he told a BBC radio phone-in.
Asked if it would be hard for him to work with the Lib Dems after what Clegg had said about him, Brown said: "Lots of people say lots of things, they're entitled to do that, but I don't get into this sort of personality politics." |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2010 7:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Peter Tatchell encourages Green voters to support Lib Dems
| Quote: | Former Green Party candidate and gay rights activist Peter Tatchell has called for Green supporters to vote for the Liberal Democrats. Mr Tatchell, who remains the party's human rights and LGBT spokesman, told a Instigate debate last night in London that even people who usually vote Green should support incumbent Lib Dem candidates or those likely to succeed.
He told PinkNews.co.uk today that he was not a Lib Dem supporter but the party promises to change the "corrupt" voting system. Mr Tatchell, who emphasised he was speaking in a personal capacity, said: "On May 6th, Labour could come third in the number of votes but still end up with the most seats. That is not democracy. The voting system is corrupt and has to change.
"The Greens support voting reform but the Lib Dems are the only major party committed to a fairer voting system. If they hold the balance of power, the Lib Dems will almost certainly ensure a fairer voting system which will be the single biggest democratic advance in Britain since the suffragettes." |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
voice of the damned
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 6139
Location: slandered, libeled
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:58 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Anyone else follow the alleged debacle around Gillian Duffy? I can't say I really disagreed with Brown's description of her afterwards as a "bigot". That's generally my impression of people who just start complaining about immigration in the middle of a conversation, a propos of nothing.
And I thought Brown's response to her during the conversation was quite apt: Yes, Eastern Europeans are coming to the UK, just like Brits are going to other places as well. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
voice of the damned
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 6139
Location: slandered, libeled
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Oh, and here's some pollsters prediction about the next parliament...
| Quote: | In conjunction with Renard Sexton and Daniel Berman, I have made several further improvements to our UK General Election forecasting model. However, it still bodes quite bad news for the Labour party; we now show them holding on to only about 200 seats in the House of Commons, versus roughly 300 for the Conseratives and 120 for the Liberal Democrats.
|
I gotta say, this is considerably better for Labour than I had been led to expect. The way people have been talking, it was as if Labour was going to come in third, or even be completely obliterated from the UK body politic. But, by these numbers, they could theoretically still form a minority government, or if not, still function as a respectable opposition.
link |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
voice of the damned
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 6139
Location: slandered, libeled
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:14 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| The link above, to the pollster's site, deosn't seem to be functioning anymore. Andrew Sullivan still has it up, though. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| That does seem rather bleak. electionprediction.org is currently giving Labour 216 seats (Conservatives 202 and Lib-Dems 72) with 137 seats still too close to call. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 5:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
Nate Silver's take on May 6:
| Quote: | | Speaking of the British election, Nate Silver has a detailed analysis of possible outcomes that are far more subtle than the 'uniform nationwide swing' used by most pundits to try and figure out how votes will translate into parliamentary seats. The short of it is that Britain's constituencies are still grossly gerrymandered, but it's not so bad as the BBC Swingometer makes it seem. Moreover, it means the current polls are good for the Conservatives -- but also that that a Lib Dem break of just a few more points would indeed secure them the most seats in parliament. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 5:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Brown implosion continues
| Quote: | British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's faltering election campaign suffered fresh blows on Friday as support for his Labour Party slid in one new poll and leading newspapers came out in support of his rivals.
Opposition Conservative leader David Cameron's campaign was boosted by viewer polls finding him the winner of a televised debate among party leaders on Thursday night, the last before next Thursday's election.
But the increased support for the Liberal Democrats, traditionally Britain's third party, showed no sign of abating, appearing to leave Britain on course for its first parliament with no overall majority since 1974.
[...]
A YouGov poll for the Sun newspaper showed the Conservatives leading on 34 percent with Labour and the Lib Dems tied on 28 percent. But a Harris poll for Saturday's Daily Mail found support for Labour, which has ruled Britain since 1997, falling to just 24 percent. If repeated next Thursday, it would be Labour's worst election showing since 1918, it said.
The poll put the Conservatives on 33 percent and the Lib Dems on 32 percent. Under Britain's electoral system, which is based solely on the vote in individual constituencies, not proportional representation, the Conservatives would be the largest party but short of a majority in parliament.
[...]
Two major newspapers turned their backs on Labour.
The Guardian, traditionally a staunch Labour supporter, said it had switched its support to the Lib Dems because it was the best way to bring about electoral reform.
The Times, which backed Labour for the first time at the 2001 election and endorsed them again in 2005, said in its Saturday edition it had returned to backing the Conservatives. |
Did anyone else catch Strombohoopaloopalous and Stewart both last night? Stewart was characterizing Brown's calling that old biddy a "bigot" as a big ol' meanie picking on the sweetest old granny in Christendom, while Strombo was castigating Brown for apologizing, pointing out that the old bag WAS a bigot. I think Stewart's fulla crap, and Strombo made the right call, for whatever that's worth --Brown's goose is still cooked, either way.
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 1:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
Voting day tomorrow (or officially today if you are in the UK). I'm hoping CPAC will cover the vote.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 3:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
And electionprediction.org has their final estimates in for all the ridings. The seat numbers they're predicting are:
| Quote: | Labour 246
Conservative 283
Liberal Democrats 89
Scottish Nationalist 7
Plaid Cymru 4
Democratic Unionist 9
Sinn Fιin 4
Social Democratic and Labour 3
Green Party 1
Speaker 1
Independent 3 |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 5:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
That prediction wasn't the final one. The one now up says:
Labour: 251
Conservative: 287
Liberal Democrat: 80
SNP: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Democratic Unionist: 9
Sinn Fein: 4
Social and Democratic Labour: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Independent: 3
Those figures would represent a gain of 77 seats for the Conservatives, a loss of 98 for Labour and a gain of 18 for the Liberal Democrats. They are predicting that George Galloway will lose his attempt at reelection (for some unimaginable reason he moved out of his safe seat into the one next door), and that the Greens will score their first ever seat at Westminster. If that is the outcome, and the Lib Dems get only 80 seats (12% of the total) with something in the neighbourhood of 28-30% of the vote, that may well provide major impetus for electoral reform.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson
Last edited by TS. on Thu May 06, 2010 5:10 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 5:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
| That's a bit of a change for 20 minutes. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 5:11 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Raos wrote: | | That's a bit of a change for 20 minutes. |
Agreed, especially since they stripped nine seats off the Lib-Dems.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 5:40 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Britain heads to polls in tightest election in decades
| Quote: | Britons voted Thursday in the closest general election for decades, with polls suggesting David Cameron's opposition Conservatives will win most seats but not enough to form a government alone.
Beleaguered Prime Minister Gordon Brown faced a long election night wait to learn his fate, after polling booths close at 10:00 pm (2100 GMT) in the knife-edge ballot.
[...]
Several eve-of-election polls showed the Conservatives had a clear lead over Brown's ruling Labour Party and Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats.
But they suggested that under Britain's first-past-the-post system, Cameron's Tories would fall short of an overall majority in the House of Commons, setting up the first hung parliament since 1974.
A poll by ICM for the Guardian newspaper predicted Conservative support had increased slightly to around 36 percent, with Labour unchanged on 28 percent, while the Lib Dems had fallen back to 26 percent.
That would roughly equate to 283 seats for the Tories, 253 for Labour and 81 for the Lib Dems.
Such an outcome would spark a scramble for power, with Cameron seeking a partner to govern, or forcing through a minority government, possibly with the support of a handful of MPs from Northern Ireland.
More than 44 million voters were called to the polls, with observers predicting turnout could be as high as 70 percent after an unusual campaign transformed by the first televised leaders' debates in a British election. |
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rufus Polson
Purple Library Guy
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3483
Location: SFU and/or the college of Riddlemastery at Caithnard
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 7:09 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | | But they suggested that under Britain's first-past-the-post system, Cameron's Tories would fall short of an overall majority in the House of Commons, setting up the first hung parliament since 1974. |
Interesting way to put it. At just a few points over 30%, presumably the Tories would *also* fall short of a majority under any plausible alternative system, probably even farther short of a majority.
Is it just me or could there be a hint here of a "Tories ought to win majorities whether they get the votes for them or not" sentiment? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 7:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I don't really see that. I think it was more a clumsy way of including the fact that for the first time the voting system has become a serious issue in a UK election.
1hr 40min to polls close.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 10:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Three seats declared - the three Sunderland seats that have a fast counting tradition. No prizes for guessing that they all went Labour.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Hephaestion
Deeply Shallow
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 24243
Location: Where the Wild Things Are...
|
| Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:57 am Post subject: |
|
|
UK exit polls: Tories win most seats, not majority
| Quote: | British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has indicated he could attempt to form a coalition government, seeking to keep his ruling Labour party in power following an uncertain election.
Exit polls say the main opposition Conservatives appear likely to claim the most number of seats in Britain's national election Thursday.
Brown pledged action Friday on election reform a key demand from the Liberal Democrats, Brown's likely partners and stressed that Britain needed "strong, stable and principled government" to ensure an economic recovery. |
Woot! 
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
|
| Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
The exit polls are saying that Labour and the Lib Dems combined won't put together enough seats to form a coalition government. I really hope they are wrong, but the results so far are not promising.
Current results:
Labour: 90 seats (19 seats lost)
Conservatives: 89 seats (20 seats gained)
Liberal Democrats: 13 seats (1 seat lost)
SNP: 5 seats (none gained or lost)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (1 seat gained)
Other: 15 seats (1 seat lost)
At this point, almost all of Scotland and Northern Ireland have reported, with Scotland being a major Labour stronghold. I would expect the Conservatives to be in the lead shortly.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Voting Centre
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
Front Page
Links
Acceptable Use Policy
Donate
Today's Active Topics