EnMasse

Hondo · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 17 Feb 2007 Posts: 169

Not to worry! The Alberta pcs are really just liberals wearing blue and don't realize they are being led by a closet NDPer.

The huge debt ahead will be the envy of Ontario and even Quebec. Alberta will be collecting from the equalization fund in 10 years at the rate the PCs are spending.

My only question then will be "What province is going to step and support Canada then?"
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Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy." Winston Churchill

"The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is." Winston Churchill[/size]

CWW · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:01 am Post subject:

DSquared · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:18 am Post subject:

Ironically enough, Allison Redford is the MLA who took back Calgary Elbow from the Liberals, after the Liberals took it in a by-election after Klein stepped down.
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

cco · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:21 am Post subject:

Raj Sherman trails by 12 votes in Edmonton-Meadowlark.
ETA: and now he's leading by 17!

The Evil Twin · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:57 am Post subject:

Very strange. I've seen polls be wrong before, but for them to be this far off is quite unusual (at least in my recollection). Up until a few days ago, I expected either a Wildrose government or a PC minority (after which I thought the knives would come out and Redford would be ousted). Not only did the PCs win a majority, it would now appear that that it's Wildrose that going to see the blame game and finger pointing. Not that I care if Wildrose implodes (couldn't happen to a nicer bunch), but the results are puzzling.
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I can't support bike lanes. Roads are built for buses, cars, and trucks. My heart bleeds when someone gets killed, but it's their own fault at the end of the day. - Assclown Rob Ford

Raos · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:33 am Post subject:

I'm with you, this was not what I was expecting, which is simultaneously both happy and sad. The Alberta PCs are about to become the longest reining government in Canadian history.

Edit: On that note, looking at the rather wide ranges ThreeHundredEight project, 2 parties fell outside their seat range (WR below, LIB above) with 1 on the absolute extreme edge of the range (PC at the top) and 3 fell outside their popular vote range (WR and NDP below, PC above). That's quite the total miss.

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:32 am Post subject:

Wow. I just woke up and I'm checking the numbers. It's not even remotely close to what the polls were predicting.

I'd be curious to know which poll was the most accurate. As far as I can tell, NONE of them were predicting a Tory majority.
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I hear words I never heard in the Bible.

Raos · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:19 am Post subject:

CBC's called all but one riding, with the one riding leading PC (by only 0.12% with 2/71 polls yet to report), and it looks like 62 PC(44.0%), 17WR(34.5%), 4 NDP(9.8%), 4 LIB(9.6%).

A few personal wrap-up points:
- on the positive side:

- on the negative side:

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 1:50 pm Post subject:

Raos · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:03 pm Post subject:

Fort Mac is both neither technically a city nor composed of urban ridings, and Red Deer has only two seats so making a point out of it being a "shut-out" doesn't say a whole lot. Overall, of the small city urban ridings WR holds 1 win (Medicine Hat), 3 relatively close seconds (both Red Deer ridings and Lethbridge East) where the margin to first was smaller than to third, and 1 close third (Lethbridge West).

Looking at Calgary, there's only 2 ridings where WR placed third (the two to go Liberal, C-Mountain View and C-Buffalo), getting second or better everywhere else in the city. Edmonton gave them far less (a number of seconds, none of which in the city proper were even close seconds, a number of thirds, and even a couple fourths), but that Edmonton was their weakest showing is not surprising.

Whether the result was going to be 1971 or 1993 is a very different beast in hindsight than it was before the election, especially with polling where it was. I hope you're right that this turns out to be the WR high water mark, making a big splash at the top of their surge, but there are key (overlapping) differences between now and the 1993 challenge to the PCs that made bode well for WR growing into the future.

In 1993 the right wasn't split and the challenge came from the left, which also means the PCs didn't benefit from any strategic voting from the left to block the challenge. Yet the popular votes appear virtually unchanged (44.3% in 1993, CBC's still incomplete results pegging them at 43.98% now). Should the next election campaign look at all similar to the run-up in this one (and I'd put good money that the WR will hammer the PCs as hard they can over the next four years and that the PCs will have its share of scandals, the real question will be whether the WR can keep a handle on the bigoted so-con outbursts and maintain an image of responsible, mostly fiscal, conservatism) there will likely be a colder reception on the centre/left to strategic PC votes. And the results were close enough in a large enough number of ridings that some relatively minor shifts could have fairly drastically different results in seat counts.

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:06 pm Post subject:

Raos:

Those are some valid points. I don't have the time or energy to research my replies right now, so I'll just leave you this...

Do you think it's just a fluke that, with one exception, the ridings that went Wildrose are all comparatively rural and geographically contiguous with each other?

In other words, could the "relatively minor shifts" that you mention just as easily have taken place in Calgary or northern Alberta? And I'm not asking those questions with any claims to having an answer myself.

Cartman · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:16 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:21 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:30 pm Post subject:

Cartman · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:31 pm Post subject:

What I find rather funny and insulting at the same time is how the media are arguing that a vote for the PCs was a vote for the centre-left of the political spectrum. Like, WTF!?

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:49 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:04 pm Post subject:

From the Globe comments section...

voice of the damned · Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:10 am Post subject:

More analysis of "what went wrong" for the pollsters

Among other things, they posit an Alberta version of the Bradley Effect, ie. people intending to vote PC were embarrassed to admit it.
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I hear words I never heard in the Bible.

Vundo Draxon · Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:24 am Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:52 am Post subject:

6079_Smith_W · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 15 Nov 2011 Posts: 571

It's not just perception; that most of the federal tories were supporting Danielle Smith was an open secret.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/24/john-ivison-federal-...

voice of the damned · Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:42 pm Post subject:

DSquared · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:58 am Post subject:

My takeaway from this election is that the PCs are beatable:

There is a long-standing sense in Alberta that maybe the province needs a change from the PCs. This sentiment was evident even 5 years ago, when Ralph Klein's former seat went Liberal in a by-election. Unfortunately for the opposition parties, none of them were able to articulate change or convince Albertans as a whole to go in a particular direction, so naturally a downward spiral resulted, where only PC supporters bothered to vote, everyone else gave up because the PCs are going to win anyways, and none of the opposition parties tried because the PCs were going to win anyways. The fact that the Wildrose Party started polling even with the Tories was evidence that voters wanted change. It's not that Albertans were particularly fond of far-right policies, it's just that the Wildrose had more resources to get its message out than any of the other parties. And that "we'll vote Wildrose for change" sentiment stuck, until Wildrose began shooting themselves in the foot with their crazy statements. Indeed, once the PCs realized that the right-wing vote was firmly parked with the Wildrose, they painted themselves as centrist (whether or not they are is a different matter) even to the point of saying they could work with the Liberals and NDP. The fact that Albertans not only responded positively, but in a much higher turn-out rate than average, shows that the political culture in Alberta is not as far to the right as the media would have us believe. I don't sense that there was a great love for the PCs, that it was more a "devil you know" vote. Now that there is a strong Official Opposition and the NDP has official party status (and came close to winning a seat in Lethbridge) who knows where things may lead?
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

al-Qa'bong · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:48 am Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:52 pm Post subject:

Interesting stuff. A map showing the relative support for various political positions in all the Alberta ridings.

Lots of what you would expect: Calgary has the free-market fiscal hawks, Edmonton the economic interventionists. But some surprises in there as well. Calgary is more pro-choice than Edmonton(more Catholic influence in the 'chuk?), and also more opposed to religious school funding.

If my geography is correct here, people in the Fort MacMurray ridings are pretty non-chalant about the environmental impact of the tar sands. People in the adjacent ridings, however, see it a little differently.

And holy cow, check out Question 12. Calgary looks like its getting ready to make "One For The Road" its new civic motto.
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I hear words I never heard in the Bible.

Chester · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:45 pm Post subject:

i really like how they presented those results, i can use that.

heartened really at the alberta response to funding private schools: skewed to no across the board.

voice of the damned · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:16 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:29 pm Post subject:

And Riled Woes continues to make friends all over the place...

Timebandit · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 856

Yeah, all that edumacation just gets in the way... Rolling Eyes

DSquared · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:32 pm Post subject:

1 person likes this post

voice of the damned · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:54 pm Post subject:

Timebandit · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 856

It was pretty interesting to see the results in map view - the southeast went ultra-conservative, which is not so far from where SK premier Brad Wall is from. Also a lot of religious/social conservatives in the area. Makes me wonder why...

Chester · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:55 pm Post subject:

Raos · Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 11:27 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 4:45 am Post subject:

Raos wrote:

voice of the damned · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 2:37 pm Post subject:

Raos wrote:

Vundo Draxon · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:30 pm Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 10:34 pm Post subject:

A tragic accident on an Alberta highway is now fodder for post-election spin.

Vundo Draxon · Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 10:15 pm Post subject:

It's true, that highway is a scary place. Expanding it won't fix the problems, but it would help mitigate the hazard. I think it that was a terribly crass comment to make on facebook and I am left baffled as to why one yahoo's comment should be considered news.

It's not the politicians or the highways killing people. It's the people driving while fatigued and/or high on drugs. Voting in a different party wouldn't do anything to help that.

voice of the damned · Posted: Wed May 09, 2012 12:12 am Post subject:

Vundo Draxon · Posted: Wed May 09, 2012 12:28 am Post subject:

Hondo · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 17 Feb 2007 Posts: 169

al-Qa'bong · Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 1:08 am Post subject:

“I do not agree that the dog in a manger has the final right to the manger even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit that right. I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place.”

Winston Churchill
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"The purpose of government is to protect the weak from the powerful" Hammurabi

"We can't all be Sam the Sham; some of us have to be Pharoahs" Larry, brother of Darrel, and his other brother Daryl

F. · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 13 Apr 2006 Posts: 2578

Raos · Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 7:19 am Post subject:

al-Qa'bong · Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 6:16 am Post subject:

voice of the damned · Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 2:14 pm Post subject:

6079_Smith_W · Fulltime enMasse Member Joined: 15 Nov 2011 Posts: 571

Yup. That's true.
One of the reasons why bears have shown up at Ness Creek some years is that the hunters stop baiting just a few weeks before the festival.
And you wouldn't want to see the ignorant video some neighbours of mine made with someone they were guiding in Manitoba.
And remember those guys who got busted for shooting up a marsh full of birds a few years ago? They had just moved here from Toronto.

anne cameron · Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 3:53 pm Post subject:

The baiting b.s. happens with fishing, too. A local "fish guide" brags he can "always" get a Smiley...a BIG halibut... the halibut have their own "paths" or "highways" in the ocean, they hang out in very deep holes and this stalwart suspends a bag of prawn bait...it dissolves very slowly, the scent attracts all manner of fish, Chummy shows up with his client and uses a fish finder to determine the depth the halibut are loafing, then it's really kind'a sort'a easy-peasy, there are some lures a halibut just cannot seem to resist...apart from the total lack of sporting ethic these "Smileys" are always breeding females; any halibut over seventy pounds is guaranteed to be a female, kill her and you kill a million babies she'd have put into the water...but they call it sport fishing....at that age and weight she's absorbed so much mercury the meat isn't safe to eat and in any event the texture is kind of yuck. So they catch her, kill her, pose for a photograph, then send her out to the landfill, totally wasted.

And if you tell a fisheries inspector you get told there's no law against it.

Raos · Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 5:07 pm Post subject:

But someone's tender macho pride gets shored up, and that's all that really matters in the end, isn't it?