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Countdown To Ontario's 41st General Election

 
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How Long Until The Next Ontario Election?
Less than 6 months
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
6 months to one year
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
1-2 years
40%
 40%  [ 2 ]
2-3 years
20%
 20%  [ 1 ]
3-4 years
40%
 40%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 5

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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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Location: Winnipeg

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:23 pm    Post subject: Countdown To Ontario's 41st General Election Reply with quote

So the results of Tuesday's election in Ontario, combined with Dalton McGuinty's general arrogant demeanour will certainly make Ontario politics more interesting. Any bets as to when Ontario will go to the polls again?
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Vundo Draxon
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Liberals are only one seat short of the majority. Is it possible for them to find a disgruntled Tory or NDPer who will cross the floor to seal the majority for the Liberals without the hassle of having to negotiate at the party level?
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a floor-crosser is relatively unlikely at this point. The disgruntled PCs are on their right wing, and disgruntled New Democrats are likely to be on the party's left.
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Corey
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And disgruntled Liberals would not be unprecedented.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS. wrote:
I think a floor-crosser is relatively unlikely at this point. The disgruntled PCs are on their right wing, and disgruntled New Democrats are likely to be on the party's left.


Wouldn't the fact that both parties gained seats kind of put down any sense of disgruntlement among the opposition parties anyways?
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TS.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DSquared wrote:
TS. wrote:
I think a floor-crosser is relatively unlikely at this point. The disgruntled PCs are on their right wing, and disgruntled New Democrats are likely to be on the party's left.


Wouldn't the fact that both parties gained seats kind of put down any sense of disgruntlement among the opposition parties anyways?

Not necessarily. Particularly for the PCs, it looked for a long time as if they were cruising to victory. A number of people within the PCs are very upset that they did not win.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So will Hudak be forced aside, or will the PCs stick with him out of uncertainty concerning the minority and whether or not a new leader would be ready in time?
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Vundo Draxon
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS. wrote:
I think a floor-crosser is relatively unlikely at this point. The disgruntled PCs are on their right wing, and disgruntled New Democrats are likely to be on the party's left.


Still, being in the government caucus and getting a few nice appointments can be alluring. It has happened before.
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Corey
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is something here. There have to be establishment, country-club or even lingering wishful Red Tories, the people who kept the fires burning for Ernie Eves and John Tory, and Christine Elliot over Hudak – but probably fear a Hudak replacement could be Hillier or Klees or someone even deeper than Hudak into that side of the party – getting more and more comfortable with Dalton McGuinty, who ran for his leadership on the right of the Liberal Party and won with an centre-right anyone-but-that-new-guy-from-the-food-bank-guy coalition, and is widely cited as in effect a Red Tory himself, etc.

Sort of a reverse of Tim Peterson, David and Jim Peterson's brother!, narrowly elected as the Liberal MPP for Mississauga South in 2003, who crossed to the John Tory PCs in 2007 probably thinking it would save his seat in 2008; (it didn't).
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGuinty snub a sign?

Quote:
Andrea Horwath asked but did not demand a meeting with McGuinty and Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak. It was by all accounts a perfectly reasonable request in the post-election period when voters — as Horwath noted — want the three party leaders to work together.

But McGuinty and his inner circle said no, while promising that Horwath and Hudak would have lots of input — in the short and the long term — when the legislature reconvenes.

Why? Well, it's an indication that McGuinty — like Prime Minister Stephen Harper before this May's federal election — may have a major minority, but plans to runs things as if he had a full-fledged majority.

Now McGuinty may have decided he'll lead the game of Queen's Park chicken, knowing that neither the New Democrats nor the Tories are in a position to bring him down, no matter how much he ignores them and their agendas.

While there will be another election — perhaps even in two years — McGuinty also knows whoever forces an early vote will pay a price at the hands of an electorate just recovering from election fatigue.

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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's that idiotic idea that voters punish whoever forces an election. There may be a negative effect in pre-writ opinion polling whenever a party muses about forcing an election, but that effect always, always, dissipates by election day. By the time voting actually rolls around, the voters have already forgotten about who was responsible for the election being called in the first place.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS. wrote:
There's that idiotic idea that voters punish whoever forces an election. There may be a negative effect in pre-writ opinion polling whenever a party muses about forcing an election, but that effect always, always, dissipates by election day. By the time voting actually rolls around, the voters have already forgotten about who was responsible for the election being called in the first place.


Not necessarily. Ask Joe Clark what happens when you govern as if you have a majority even if the numbers don't back you up.
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Chester
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DSquared wrote:
TS. wrote:
There's that idiotic idea that voters punish whoever forces an election. There may be a negative effect in pre-writ opinion polling whenever a party muses about forcing an election, but that effect always, always, dissipates by election day. By the time voting actually rolls around, the voters have already forgotten about who was responsible for the election being called in the first place.


Not necessarily. Ask Joe Clark what happens when you govern as if you have a majority even if the numbers don't back you up.


Joe, at least, let democracy deal with his strategic error, unlike Mr. Harper.

edit:

P.S.
Joe Clarke was the subject of one of the funniest political cartoons of all time. it was in Macleans on the back page, i believe: a drawing of joe driving a VW bug; you can see the back of his head and his big ears through the rear window, there is a spray of bullet holes across the rear of the vehicle and Joe's scared, bulging eyes are in all three mirrors!
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Corey
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrea Horwath introduces the Ontario NDP's new Shadow Cabinet.

Excerpting, the new MPPs:

Cindy Forster, Welland
Deputy House Leader
Municipal Affairs and Housing
[Legislative experience: She's been Mayor of Welland and Niagara Regional Councillor.]

Teresa Armstrong, London—Fanshawe
Training, Colleges & Universities, Seniors

Sarah Campbell, Kenora—Rainy River
Natural Resources, Aboriginal Affairs

Michael Mantha, Algoma—Manitoulin
Northern Development and Mines

Taras Natyshak, Essex
Labour, Correctional Services and Infrastructure

Jonah Schein, Davenport
Environment, Urban Transportation

Jagmeet Singh, Bramalea—Gore—Malton
Justice (Attorney General), Consumer Services

Monique Taylor, Hamilton Mountain
Children and Youth Services

John Vanthof, Timiskaming—Cochrane
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs
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voice of the damned
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Joe Clarke was the subject of one of the funniest political cartoons of all time. it was in Macleans on the back page, i believe: a drawing of joe driving a VW bug; you can see the back of his head and his big ears through the rear window, there is a spray of bullet holes across the rear of the vehicle and Joe's scared, bulging eyes are in all three mirrors!


I think that would have been by Roy Peterson, who illustrated Fotheringham's column.

He also illustrated a series of fairy-tale books about Canadian politics.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will Frank Klees cross the floor?

Quote:
The opposition may inadvertently help out Ontario's Liberal government by allowing one of its members to run for Speaker of the legislature.

The Liberals fell one seat short of a majority in the Oct. 6 election, and the opposition parties had vowed not to put any candidates forward as Speaker, further weakening the Liberals' position.

But Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak said Tuesday Newmarket's Frank Klees will be putting his name forward.

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DSquared
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Horwath, Hudak, talk HST:

Quote:
Ontario's Progressive Conservatives are set to back an NDP bill that would nix the HST on home heating bills, an idea both parties floated during the provincial election.

PC Leader Tim Hudak and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath met Wednesday to discuss the private member's bill. Although neither denied their distance on the political spectrum, both said they could agree on reducing the cost of living for Ontarians.

"Obviously there's a lot of areas that the NDP and PCs will never agree on, but good meeting, very productive," Hudak told reporters afterwards.

"Are we going to support that? Page five of our platform — of course," he said of the bill.

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The Evil Twin
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Dsquared's link:

Quote:
Both Horwath and Hudak said Premier Dalton McGuinty must understand that decisions must be made differently in the legislature because the Oct. 6 vote denied him a majority.

But the Liberals appeared unfazed by co-ordination between the two parties, and shrugged off the proposed bill on Monday.

Even though the opposition parties could outvote the Liberals, the bill made still be dead on arrival. The governing party still controls which bills get called for final reading, and have said they won't call this one.


Ah shit, I'd forgotten about the fact that the government can't fall because of stuff like this and briefly got elated until I came to these paragraphs. Mind you, I still think it will be tough for the Libs to last their full term but it will have to be a non-confidence vote or budget vote I guess.
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TS.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think that is an accurate statement about the government's ability to control the order paper. There are still opposition days on which the opposition can move and vote one what ever they like. They could use their opposition days to move and vote on second and third reading of this bill.

A better explanation of why this won't go anywhere is that it is a money bill and accordingly will be ruled out of order by the Speaker. Only a minister of the Crown may introduce a money bill into the legislature.
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The Evil Twin
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS. wrote:
I don't think that is an accurate statement about the government's ability to control the order paper. There are still opposition days on which the opposition can move and vote one what ever they like. They could use their opposition days to move and vote on second and third reading of this bill.

A better explanation of why this won't go anywhere is that it is a money bill and accordingly will be ruled out of order by the Speaker. Only a minister of the Crown may introduce a money bill into the legislature.


Thanks for the clarification, TS. Cool
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DSquared
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Changes coming to Ontario Place?

Quote:
"Ontario Place has been a drain on the government treasury for many years … it’s no longer sustainable," Chan said during a news conference at the legislature.

To that end, the government will close the portions of the park that are not generating revenue, while it tries to redevelop the site over the next five years.

Chan said the Cinesphere, as well as the water park and amusement rides, will be among the parts of Ontario Place to close.

The Molson Canadian Amphitheatre, the Atlantis Pavilion, the marina and the parking lot will remain open.


Hudak survives leadership review, PCs elect Richard Ciano as President
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DSquared
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 3:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a good thing that the Mike Harris days are behind Ontario:

Quote:
The Ontario government must curtail its spending with the kind of cuts not seen since the Mike Harris years, according to a report by former TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond.

Released Wednesday, Drummond’s report calls for extensive spending reductions and warns that without his recommended belt-tightening, the province will face a crippling $30-billion deficit by 2017-18.

Drummond warns that failing to follow such severe austerity measures could cause Ontario’s debt, which currently stands at $215 billion, to balloon to more than $411 billion in five years.

To avoid this and balance the books by 2017-18, Drummond outlines 362 recommendations in his 665-page, two-volume report, which he calls “a wrenching reduction from the path that spending is now on.”

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DSquared
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The case for strategic voting in Kitchener

Meanwhile, Liberals move forward in trying to limit teacher's pay in the ongoing labour dispute
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DSquared
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catherine Fife takes Kitchener-Waterloo for the NDP
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The Evil Twin
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Catherine Fife takes Kitchener-Waterloo for the NDP


Good news. No Lib majority. Very Happy
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey ET, what do you and other Ontarians think of the media puns about Hudak and McGuinty meeting their Waterloo? Wink Razz
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasn't Kitchener once known as Berlin?

Is a red flag flying over its city hall these days?
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The Evil Twin
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DSquared wrote:
Hey ET, what do you and other Ontarians think of the media puns about Hudak and McGuinty meeting their Waterloo? Wink Razz


ROTFL

al-Qa'bong wrote:
Wasn't Kitchener once known as Berlin?



Yup, changed to Kitchener during WWI. A lot of the population of Kitchener-Waterloo are still heavily German and Dutch.
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al-Qa'bong
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm, oliebollen and spatzle will do that to ya.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:44 pm    Post subject: McGuinty resigns Reply with quote

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/10/15/toronto-miss...

Wow, I didn't see this coming! Sure hope Hudak doesn't benefit from this move.


Last edited by Cartman on Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:34 am; edited 1 time in total
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Tehanu
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, this is a bit of a shocker. When I heard earlier he was calling a caucus meeting, I thought maybe an apology, certainly not a resignation. First thing that occurs to me is that there's more to come with the energy plant relocation that the opposition parties have been hammering him and Chris Bentley about and that this is pre-emptive.

Second thing is that the teachers' unions, which were pretty pro-Liberal in the past, are howling for blood (not surprisingly, given that McGuinty took away their collective bargaining rights) and that cost him at least one by-election. So McGuinty's probably feeling like the writing is on the wall. Plus there are various other Liberal-type mismanagement issues that are dogging him, like eHealth and the ORNG problems.

Possibly that construction + mafia scandal in Quebec is about to bust out in Ontario, although that's less likely to be an immediate concern.

Or maybe, after another day of getting hammered in the Ontario Parliament, McGuinty's just tired. Fair enough. Not an excuse to prorogue.

I don't think, fingers crossed, that Hudak is electable (but I thought that about Rob Ford, so I'm no longer underestimating the stupidities people will vote for). Given that the NDP won in the KW by-election, maybe there's a chance that the Bob Rae Chill is over in Ontario?

I'm not entirely delighted by this. Although there's plenty to criticize, we've done a lot worse in Ontario than McGuinty.

Seems the Liberals are spiralling down the drain right now.

And proroguing the Ontario legislature? Taking a page out of Harper's book, now, are we? Boo.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, something is about to come out. I suspect the opposition will be able to prove corruption.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You don't think he would run federally do ya?
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only if he wanted his ass handed to him on a plate. So, I'd say, not a chance. He's tired and beleaguered and has too much baggage.
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The Evil Twin
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tehanu wrote:

I don't think, fingers crossed, that Hudak is electable (but I thought that about Rob Ford, so I'm no longer underestimating the stupidities people will vote for).


And Harris. That was another assclown that was thought to be unelectable (including by me....far too right-wing for Ontario, I thought).... and we all know what happened in 95....... Shocked

Tehanu wrote:

Given that the NDP won in the KW by-election, maybe there's a chance that the Bob Rae Chill is over in Ontario?


Gawd I hope so! Especially since Rae is now a senior federal Liberal and has nothing to do with the modern ONDP.
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DSquared
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Cartman, is it okay for this discussion to be merged with this thread?
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sure thing!
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DSquared
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why the Ontario Liberals could go down hard:

Quote:
According to the threehundredeight.com analysis of the Forum results the Liberals would elect only 3 seats, all in Toronto (416 area code). This means McGuinty himself, if he runs again, Duncan, Bentley, Mathews, and many other cabinet members are toast. Only 3 of the following, Wynne, Broton, Duguid, or Hoskins would survive. This is the type of devastation that you don’t come back from unless it is decades later.

The answer to a political scientist or an experienced pollster is quite simple. The Tories, depending on each poll, are mid thirties in political support. Almost none of them support the teachers and almost all of them support the removal of the right to strike. Thus 35% out of the 40% that support the Liberal government’s direction are Tories leaving only 5% for the Liberals and 35% of the 45% that support suspending the right to strike are also Tories leaving only 10% for the Liberals. Given the absolutely bone-headed political stupidity of the Liberals political moves, it is surprising they can retain even 20% support.

In the meantime, the Liberals have abandoned the progressive half of the electorate that supports the teachers and opposes the removal of the right to strike. Now the NDP can occupy that half of the electorate all by itself. The Liberals are duplicating the Kitchener-Waterloo bi-election results right across Ontario.

When Liberals implement essentially Tory policy, Tories will cheer but they will still vote Tory in the next election. How many lessons do Bob Rae or Dalton McGuinty need to get this stuff-Remedial Political Science 101 for Dalton.

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Tehanu
More or less, more or less


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Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation

PostPosted: Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glen Murray has tossed his hat in the ring, no surprise there. He resigned as Minister of Training, Colleges and Universities yesterday. And Kathleen Wynne is supposed to be announcing her candidacy tomorrow; she's also resigned her cabinet position.

What's kind of interesting it that both of them are openly gay.
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24


Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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Location: Winnipeg

PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wynne-win:

Quote:
Kathleen Wynne passes Sandra Pupatello on the third ballot to win the Ontario Liberal leadership and inherit a minority government.

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cco
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Joined: 04 May 2006
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Location: love of one's country is a terrible thing

PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is it with Canadians and really bad puns? Has a sociologist looked into this?
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al-Qa'bong
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One made some initial investigations, but soon after starting she was hired by the CBC to write headlines for "As it Happens."
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cco
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, as I calculate it, between Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta, Newfoundland-Labrador, and Nunavut, 87.6% of Canadians now have a female premier (or will, once Wynne gets sworn in). That'll go down somewhat when Christy Clark gets shown the door in May, but it's still nothing to sneeze at.
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