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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
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 Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 7:11 am Post subject: Seat Projections, Results, Etc. |
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So does anyone want to go out on a limb and predict seats? Here is what I project the seat count to be, province by province:
Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal: 4 (-2)
NDP: 2 (+1)
Conservative: 1 (+1)
Prince Edward Island
Conservative: 2 (+1)
NDP: 1 (+1)
Liberal: 1 (-2)
Nova Scotia
NDP: 5 (+3)
Liberal: 4 (-1)
Conservative: 2 (-2)
New Brunswick
Conservative: 5 (-1)
Liberal: 3
NDP: 2 (+1)
Quebec
NDP: 43 (+42)
Bloc Quebecois: 19 (-29)
Liberal: 8 (-6)
Conservative: 5 (-6)
Ontario
Conservative: 56 (+5)
NDP: 25 (+8 )
Liberal: 24 (-13)
Independent: 1
Manitoba
Conservative: 7 (-2)
NDP: 5 (+2)
Liberal: 2
Saskatchewan
Conservative: 8 (-5)
NDP: 5 (+5)
Liberal: 1
Alberta
Conservative: 23 (-4)
NDP: 4 (+4)
Independent: 1 (+1)
British Colombia
NDP: 17 (+8 )
Conservative: 16 (-6)
LIberal: 2 (-3)
Green: 1 (+1)
Yukon
Liberal
Northwest Territories
NDP
Nunavut
Conservative
Resulting in:
Conservative: 125 seats (-18 )
NDP: 110 (+74)
Liberal: 52 (-25)
Bloc Quebecois: 19 (-29)
Green: 1 (+1)
Plus 2 Independent Members of Parliament
(Edited to correct a mistake forecasting Winnipeg)
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Last edited by DSquared on Sun May 01, 2011 2:38 am; edited 4 times in total |
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Corey
Non-Threatening Boy
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 1972
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| Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| Who's the independent in Alberta? And I'm guessing the one in Ontario is Guergis. |
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Vundo Draxon
Leftist-rightie and rightist-leftie
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 1712
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| Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Corey wrote: | | Who's the independent in Alberta? |
James Ford. He's a conservative who went independent over some nomination dispute.
And if the NDP get 4 in Alberta, isn't that +3? They already have Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona (which is now a very safe NDP seat). I'm also skeptical about them picking up anything but Edmonton-Centre, and I still think that is a three-way race. The Liberals are suffering nationally, but Mary MacDonald appears to have a solid campaign team. It was Anne McLellan's riding not too long ago. |
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
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| Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Vundo Draxon wrote: | | And if the NDP get 4 in Alberta, isn't that +3? They already have Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona (which is now a very safe NDP seat). I'm also skeptical about them picking up anything but Edmonton-Centre, and I still think that is a three-way race. The Liberals are suffering nationally, but Mary MacDonald appears to have a solid campaign team. It was Anne McLellan's riding not too long ago. |
I'm assuming the NDP wins its targeted Edmonton seats, and going out on a limb and assuming a pick-up in Calgary. Speaking of which....
| Quote: | Calgary Conservative Rob Anders is accusing the Liberal and NDP parties of conspiring in two Alberta ridings in hopes of defeating the Tory candidates.
Anders, an incumbent, says he has been door knocking in his riding of Calgary West and has met lots of voters, but hasn't seen NDP candidate Shawna Knowles and has only noticed a handful of her signs.
Knowles lives in Edmonton, home to Edmonton-Strathcona, a contested riding and the only Alberta seat that went to a non-Conservative in 2008.
Anders suggests that in return for the NDP keeping a low profile in his riding, the Liberal candidate isn't actively campaigning in Edmonton-Strathcona, in hopes of shoring up support for incumbent NDP candidate Linda Duncan. |
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Searosia
The Rain King
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Back in Calgary!
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| Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | James Ford. He's a conservative who went independent over some nomination dispute.
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Any idea what that dispute was? I've heard some...er...rather nasty rumours about how Ford ended up being an independant.
For Calgary - very doubtful that you'll seen anything but blue (with one exception which I'll get to in a sec, and it's conflicting me)...however I think you're going to see one of the stronger non-conservative turnouts come from us and hopefully pave the way for future elections. We're growing...but no overnight miracle.
That said...there is a cnadidate I have high hopes for...I sorta mentioned in the past, but Calgary city center has had a semi-star liberal candidate for a few elections now. Heesung Kim has done quite an impressive job for the Liberals in the downtown riding. The second star calgarian liberal is Jennifer Pollack (easily found at http://www.jenniferpollock.ca/ ) who has run against Rob Anders in the past. I'm not entirely sure what happened, but Heesung didn't try for the city center nomination this year (I think she's bowed out of politics, but I can't confirm).
Jennifer Pollack has a recognizable name, strong face (she's one of the few that ensures her campaign signs show her face constantly), and a pretty good 'unapologetic' liberal...and possibly the face of calgary federal libs. The problem in the past is the riding she's in....she's in the S.W. fighting with Rob Anders deep in the heart of the strongest conservative section of calgary (S.W. is the miles of white pickets and hummers, little boxes on the hillside, lil boxes made of ticky tacky...). Nenshi couldn't win much over in this section either, it went heavily McIver.
Jennifer Pollack is now running in my downtown riding taking her name and face to the riding most likely to bring a non-conservative into parliment from calgary...and fighting with Lee Richardson, which is kinda a conservative no name to my knowledge. As far as I can see...the green vote here has completely collapsed (in the downtown riding, I think it may be semi-intentional) and may end up aligning behind Jennifer. Ugh, I think I might be talking myself into a strategic vote here...she's got an impressive campaign presence (possibly the only presence in much of the Beltline) while our NDP campaign is not gaining the most traction vs Pollack either.
On a side note...I did a personal petition one day quite some time ago to get Jennifer to consider running as a NDP candidate...said we had cookies. I guess I should have gone with choco-chip cookies instead of oatmeal raisin.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party |
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scott
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 444
Location: Ontariario
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| Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2011 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| Searosia wrote: | | Quote: | James Ford. He's a conservative who went independent over some nomination dispute.
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Any idea what that dispute was? I've heard some...er...rather nasty rumours about how Ford ended up being an independent. |
Old feud continues to divide conservatives in Sherwood Park
If Ford wins the result will be a bit of a wash. He is running as an independent conservative and will likely vote with the cons.
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One struggle, many fronts. |
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The Evil Twin
Stoned Immaculate
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3746
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Sun May 01, 2011 3:54 am Post subject: |
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Convicted felon and pretentious buffoon Esteemed National Pest columnist Lord Tubby has come out with his seat predictions in today's Pest:
| Quote: | | It would be rank cowardice to close without a prediction and a recommendation: 143 Conservatives, 70 Liberals, 64 NDP, 30 Blocistes, 1 independent (not, unfortunately, Helena Guergis). Jack Layton is the François Mitterand of Canada: a man of the old left who has persevered and is taking a large part of the centre; to have doubled the strength of his party in a 30-day election campaign is a historic achievement. |
Most of the column focuses on Tubby's usual hobbies of bashing socialists and Quebec nationalists and so is worthless to reproduce but there is one item I found VERY interesting. While to no ones surprise, he agrees with most of Harper's policies, he does have one area of disagreement:
| Quote: | | I have not been an uncritical supporter of the government, and am appalled by its criminal and prison policy. |
What? Lord Tubby disagrees with Harper's tough on crime and prison policies? WTF? Now what do you suppose made an establishment man like our good Lord give a shit about the plight of criminals or the Penal system? I wonder.....  
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/first+stirrings+part...
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I can't support bike lanes. Roads are built for buses, cars, and trucks. My heart bleeds when someone gets killed, but it's their own fault at the end of the day. - Assclown Rob Ford |
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F.
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 2578
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| Posted: Sun May 01, 2011 5:12 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Lord Tubby disagrees with Harper's tough on crime and prison policies? |
Kinda like Igor Kenk coming out against BIXI. |
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
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| Posted: Sun May 01, 2011 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| F. wrote: | | Quote: | | Lord Tubby disagrees with Harper's tough on crime and prison policies? |
Kinda like Igor Kenk coming out against BIXI. |
Ha!
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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Maestro
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 2354
Location: Vancouver
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| Posted: Sun May 01, 2011 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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A side note: A friend of mine I discovered is not on the voter's list. I will find out what he needs to do in order to vote, but it occurred to me that in this day and age of rapid movement, most voters would know someone who is not registered to vote.
If every NDP supporter found a friend and helped them get to mark their ballot, there would undoubtedly be more votes for the NDP, and in a close race who know, that vote could be the one that seals a victory.
So if you know of anyone who may not have received a voter card, give them a hand to make sure they vote.
Now back to the scheduled program already in progress...
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On the wilds of the Drive |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Sun May 01, 2011 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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This is a perennial issue for port-secondary students (especially this particular election, which is pretty much on the worst possible date for them as so many are moving this weekend).
To their credit, Elections Canada has a LOT of very clearly-written and easily accessed information on their website, as well as a toll-free number -- 1-800-463-6868. |
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The Evil Twin
Stoned Immaculate
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3746
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 5:37 am Post subject: |
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I don't know much about the research methods of these guys, but "The Election Prediction Project" is still projecting the Liberals as Official Opposition, something I've rarely seen in the various projections all of which give the NDP OO status.
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Federal Election - élection générale
Canada - 2011
Updated:
8:40 AM 01/05/2011
Current Prediction:
Changed: 2011-05-01 22:42:48
Conservative Party
Parti Conservateur 146
Liberal Party
Parti Liberal 65
N.D.P.
N.P.D. 61
Bloc Quebecois 33
Independent 1
Too Close 2
Total 308
They seem to be a little too optimistic about the Liberals. I'm predicting a much more severe Liberal collapse, almost to the John Turner 84 levels. IOW around 40 seats.
_________________
I can't support bike lanes. Roads are built for buses, cars, and trucks. My heart bleeds when someone gets killed, but it's their own fault at the end of the day. - Assclown Rob Ford |
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cco
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 04 May 2006
Posts: 712
Location: love of one's country is a terrible thing
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 5:48 am Post subject: |
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| The final EKOS poll/projection has the NDP with big leads in Québec and Atlantic Canada, a small lead in BC, tied with the Liberals in Ontario, and a clear, strong second in the Prairies (even Alberta). Their final projections are: Con 130-146, NDP 103-123, Lib 36-46, BQ 10-20, Green 1. |
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The Evil Twin
Stoned Immaculate
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 3746
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 5:53 am Post subject: |
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| cco wrote: | | The final EKOS poll/projection has the NDP with big leads in Québec and Atlantic Canada, a small lead in BC, tied with the Liberals in Ontario, and a clear, strong second in the Prairies (even Alberta). Their final projections are: Con 130-146, NDP 103-123, Lib 36-46, BQ 10-20, Green 1. |
That seems to be a lot more realistic projection for both the NDP and Liberal numbers (given the high polling over the last week for the NDP and almost complete collapse of the Liberal vote) compared to the Election Prediction Project.
_________________
I can't support bike lanes. Roads are built for buses, cars, and trucks. My heart bleeds when someone gets killed, but it's their own fault at the end of the day. - Assclown Rob Ford |
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Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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The final numbers for http://electionprediction.org put the NDP as official opposition just ahead of the libs, a loss for May with no Green seats, and the Cons just several seats short of majority.
Con: 146
NDP: 65
Lib: 63
Bloc: 33
Ind.: 1 |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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ThreeHundredEight, which seems to have consistency been underhwhelming about the NDP, has boosted their projection of NDP seats:
CON 143
LIB 73
NDP 78
BQ 27
GRN 0
This is their revision from yesterday:
| Quote: | Twenty-two seats have changed hands in the projection since yesterday.
In British Columbia, the NDP takes Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca from the Conservatives, who had taken the seat from the Liberals in the projection recently. The New Democrats also take Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar from the Tories.
In Ontario, the Conservatives take Ajax - Pickering, Brampton West, and Guelph from the Liberals. The New Democrats take Beaches - East York and Parkdale - High Park from the Liberals and Oshawa from the Tories.
In Quebec, the New Democrats take Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles from the Conservatives. They also take the following seats from the Bloc:
Alfred-Pellan, Brome - Missisquoi, Compton - Stanstead, Longueuil - Pierre-Boucher, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Québec, Repentigny, Rivière-des-Milles-Iles, Rivière-du-Nord, Saint-Bruno - Saint-Hubert, Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot, Shefford, and Verchères - Les Patriotes. |
All that says to me is at this point it's anyone's guess. Exciting, or what?  |
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Tehanu wrote: | | This is a perennial issue for port-secondary students (especially this particular election, which is pretty much on the worst possible date for them as so many are moving this weekend). |
All the more reason to go back to the door-to-door enumeration that was in place pre-1997, plus it is a good way to verify who actually should be voting without attendant privacy concerns or disenfranchising people.
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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| True -- although door-to-door hasn't vanished completely. Normally Elections Canada does make an effort (depending on the riding I expect) to register university students living in residence, but that's pretty much irrelevant immediately after the school year ends. |
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Raos
volatilis vir
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5472
Location: Petropolis
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Neither electionprediction nor threehundredeight is projecting more than one non-Con seat in Alberta. |
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Raos wrote: | | Neither electionprediction nor threehundredeight is projecting more than one non-Con seat in Alberta. |
No, but that isn't exactly surprising. Both Edmonton-East and Edmonton-Centre were going to be extremely high hills to climb. I would expect the NDP to be within 10% of the Conservative in East, but in Centre I think the Liberal will be between 15 and 20% back.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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I'm still dreaming about an NDP win in Calgary Southwest.  |
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Cartman
Beyond cuddly
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 8635
Location: OMG! They killed Jason Kenney!
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| Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 11:50 pm Post subject: |
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| I have faith in Ray Martin! |
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DSquared
aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 5570
Location: Winnipeg
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:04 am Post subject: |
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| TS. wrote: | | Raos wrote: | | Neither electionprediction nor threehundredeight is projecting more than one non-Con seat in Alberta. |
No, but that isn't exactly surprising. Both Edmonton-East and Edmonton-Centre were going to be extremely high hills to climb. I would expect the NDP to be within 10% of the Conservative in East, but in Centre I think the Liberal will be between 15 and 20% back. |
Election Prediction also called Strathcona for the Conservatives in 2008. I think the fact that Duncan at least offers an alternative Albertan voice on the political stage, plus higher turnout (East had lower turnout than Strathcona, IIRC) is enough to push Ray Martin to victory.
Speaking of Edmonton Strathcona, I can't believe we missed this the first time, but:
When a hockey player misses an empty net, it's now called a Jaffer!
_________________
This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Cartman
Beyond cuddly
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 8635
Location: OMG! They killed Jason Kenney!
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:17 am Post subject: |
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| I will eat an ugly 8-legged bug if Linda does not win this riding. This one is a done deal because Alberta New Democrats are hard core and Linda has worked her ass off for this for years. |
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| Cartman wrote: | | I will eat an ugly 8-legged bug if Linda does not win this riding. This one is a done deal because Alberta New Democrats are hard core and Linda has worked her ass off for this for years. |
Don't even think it. Losing that seat is not to be contemplated.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:25 am Post subject: |
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| I think Linda Duncan is pretty safe. Apparently the Conservative candidate has been flailing mightily, and wasn't he the one who had a highly undesirable dude on his campaign? (I'm forgetting the details but it was one of the scandals ...) |
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TS.
Delicious schadenfreude
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 14585
Location: Toronto, ON
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:29 am Post subject: |
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He had Sebastien Tognieri on his team, he of the blocked access to information request.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:34 am Post subject: |
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| Right, that was it. I also read a couple of newspaper articles about how elusive he was in the riding. |
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bshmr
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 22 Aug 2006
Posts: 4004
Location: Central USA, Earth
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:40 am Post subject: |
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| TS. wrote: | | Cartman wrote: | | I will eat an ugly 8-legged bug if Linda does not win this riding. This one is a done deal because Alberta New Democrats are hard core and Linda has worked her ass off for this for years. |
Don't even think it. Losing that seat is not to be contemplated. |
I hope you are right because the catalog prices for any giant exotic spiders is almost beyond my means <g>. |
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Senor Magoo
He's got a big one
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 8700
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:53 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I will eat an ugly 8-legged bug |
Insects have 6 legs. So basically, a spider.
Have you had an X-ray lately? Because if a radioactive human bites a spider, they could take on super-spider human powers, like reading or enjoying theatre.
_________________
ø¤°`°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°`°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°°¤ø,¸_¸,ø¤°°¤ø, |
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Cartman
Beyond cuddly
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 8635
Location: OMG! They killed Jason Kenney!
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 12:54 am Post subject: |
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| Meh, I have tonnes of 8-legged freaks at my place. SOME people say that they are a problem. Huh. |
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Tehanu
More or less, more or less
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 17639
Location: Seceded from the Ford Nation
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 1:19 am Post subject: |
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| Are they tasty? Crunchy goodness? |
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F.
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 2578
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | (I'm forgetting the details but it was one of the scandals ...) |
Glad I'm not the only one having difficulty keeping all these Conservative scandals straight. I thought I might be going senile. Turns out the Conservatives are just really corrupt. |
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bshmr
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 22 Aug 2006
Posts: 4004
Location: Central USA, Earth
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 1:42 am Post subject: |
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| Tehanu wrote: | | Are they tasty? Crunchy goodness? |
[I feel a nap coming on]Head, legs, and thorax are; abdomens tend to squirt and the outsides can be chewy. One should avoid hidden infants though as they cause all sorts of havoc -- from sneezing fits to suffocation -- despite claims of aphrodisia. [I am awake now, strange dream.] |
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Feral
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 890
Location: In a tree... very high up.
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 1:47 am Post subject: |
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| No... don't eat the infant spiders. They're not good for you. The big hairy ones are best. Scorch the fuzz off, then toast them. (Though that makes the legs crunchier than most people enjoy.) |
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bagkitty
Fulltime enMasse Member
Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 599
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| Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 6:07 am Post subject: |
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you don't have to scorch them, you can poach them instead... then the hairy bits are more like pasta
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Whom the hive does not cherish, it eats. |
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