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EnMasse This place is all that is left.
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DSquared aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 5570 Location: Winnipeg
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Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:51 pm Post subject: Time To Dream: Progressives In Crossroads |
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Do you dream of a better Canada? Maybe you don't have a family doctor. Maybe you are concerned about homelessness and urban poverty, or the state of affairs on First Nations. Perhaps you are concerned about the decline of family farms and resource industries, which is killing off rural areas. Maybe you are frustrated with the gridlock that is paralyzing your commute while you continue to pay for gas prices that have already jumped well before the typical summer surge. You want to vote your conscience, and yet you are afraid that your vote won't count, that you have to vote for someone else to stop someone you really don't like. Will you ever be able to vote your beliefs?
Now is your chance. For the first time in 23 years, Canadians can vote for something. In a stunning turn of events, the NDP, once thought by pundits to be in danger of losing seats as the Liberals and Conservatives battled for top spot, is now in second place nationally and the Liberals dropping dramatically. The Liberals have long asked people to vote Liberal out of fear of what the right wing would do, only to follow through with many of the same policies. Yet their fear campaign against the Conservatives has fallen apart, and in an unusual twist of events, Harper is poised to win seats around (and possibly in) the liberal/left bastion of Toronto, while at the same time is nearly certain to lose seats in the right-wing bastion of Alberta. How did this come to be?
The seeds of this shift, showing up federally, can be seen in recent municipal elections in the cities of Toronto and Calgary that happened within weeks of each other. There were similar dynamics. A long-serving incumbent mayor had stepped aside. A far-right city councillor challenged for the post. The main challengers were also right-wing, though not to the same degree. The best candidates, according to public opinion polls, were nowhere near contention.
That is where the similarities end. In Toronto, progressives panicked at the thought of Rob Ford being elected mayor, and loudly asked everyone to vote for the unpopular George Smitherman, who's only reason for being in contention was that he apparently could win according to public opinion polls. Pantalone was blamed for splitting the vote, but in the end, retained a strong core support while Ford handily beat Smitherman. Regardless of how scary things seemed to be, too many Pantalone supporters saw no reason to choose between 2 right-wingers. Some things, they argue, are more important than the race for first place.
Calgary was a different scenario. Progressive voters, led by young adults, campaigned relentlessly for Naheed Nenshi and built up a base of support, despite a call for strategic voting by one of the marginal contenders. Their hard work paid off, and Nenshi was elected on a wave of high turnout.
Appealing to people's aspirations proved to be far more effective than trying to scare them away from something bad. The question many progressives had in this election: do I vote strategically or do I vote my conscience?
Both. In 2011, the clear strategic choice is your conscience. _________________ This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Searosia The Rain King
Joined: 09 Jul 2007 Posts: 917 Location: Back in Calgary!
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Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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Good post...
Though I wanted to (kinda) correct something, from the Calgary part
| Quote: | Progressive voters, led by young adults, campaigned relentlessly for Naheed Nenshi and built up a base of support, despite a call for strategic voting by one of the marginal contenders.
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I really have no clue why the bolded part is in there...that was a candidate withdrawing from the race and sending their support to a candidate that had a similiar platform...I thought this was called 'endorsing' another candidate, not strategic voting.
And Nenshi received more endorsements than barb....I beleive Hawksworth was only polling around 3% when he dropped out. While Nenshi's support was around 8% and Kent Hehr was around 5%, Kent dropped out, endorsed Nenshi, and sent his entire volunteer base (that are kinda associated with each other anyway) to help Nenshi's campaign...and that happened almost a full month before Hawksworth did.
There was no real call for strategic voting and I'm not really sure why'd you say 'despite' in there.
That said....I need to repeat and highlight this line:
| Quote: | | Appealing to people's aspirations proved to be far more effective than trying to scare them away from something bad. |
The youth of Canada more often than not want the next step...when do we get the chance to leave our mark on this world? This mentality plays so well to selling a vision, yet completely rejects the 'fear someone else' campaigning...sell the dream, capture the youth. _________________ Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party |
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DSquared aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 5570 Location: Winnipeg
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Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Searosia wrote: | | Quote: | | Progressive voters, led by young adults, campaigned relentlessly for Naheed Nenshi and built up a base of support, despite a call for strategic voting by one of the marginal contenders. |
I really have no clue why the bolded part is in there...that was a candidate withdrawing from the race and sending their support to a candidate that had a similiar platform...I thought this was called 'endorsing' another candidate, not strategic voting.
And Nenshi received more endorsements than barb....I beleive Hawksworth was only polling around 3% when he dropped out. While Nenshi's support was around 8% and Kent Hehr was around 5%, Kent dropped out, endorsed Nenshi, and sent his entire volunteer base (that are kinda associated with each other anyway) to help Nenshi's campaign...and that happened almost a full month before Hawksworth did. |
Thank you for this correction. I mentioned Hawkesworth because it sounded like a call to vote strategically for the second-place candidate at the time. He sounded motivated by fear of what McIver would do as mayor.
| Searosia wrote: | | There was no real call for strategic voting and I'm not really sure why'd you say 'despite' in there. |
Again, thanks for the correction. I think that little bit only proves the point even more strongly that positive appeals are more effective than calling for strategic voting. _________________ This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Searosia The Rain King
Joined: 09 Jul 2007 Posts: 917 Location: Back in Calgary!
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Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | He sounded motivated by fear of what McIver would do as mayor. |
Anyone that would align for fear of McIver was already behind Nenshi...it did exist as a voting segment, but small...I get the feeling more organizers and campaigners were afraid of McIver than voters were. Heh, if you want really bad there's a rumour that the two B.H.'s were a bit 'cozy' during the election campaign...though I think rumor (radio host chatter?), but still fun to bring up. Definitely not strategic voting and leads perfectly to:
| Quote: | | I think that little bit only proves the point even more strongly that positive appeals are more effective than calling for strategic voting. |
Agreed, I think part of the Liberal fail stems from their attempt to free ride on the 'not Harper' ABC vote. ABC will never change the mind of a conservative solely on the basis of ABC, you need a vision...a reason to vote for you beyond 'Not them' and the NDP are seen more positively as actually being an alternative. One of my reasons for cons consistently choosing NDP as their second vote...and perhaps why I think we saw a Green spike last election, Greens almost gave a vision.
Voting is based on picking what you want, Strategic voting is what you call voting based on what you don't want. When you're talking to the youth vote (young adult's campaigning for nenshi), energy comes from what you can do more so than fear of the big bad harper...kinda why I don't like harper attack ads right now, not sure if you want to distract from a NDP vision of Canada right now. _________________ Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party |
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DSquared aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 5570 Location: Winnipeg
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Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:35 am Post subject: |
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| Searosia wrote: | | I think part of the Liberal fail stems from their attempt to free ride on the 'not Harper' ABC vote. ABC will never change the mind of a conservative solely on the basis of ABC, you need a vision...a reason to vote for you beyond 'Not them' and the NDP are seen more positively as actually being an alternative. One of my reasons for cons consistently choosing NDP as their second vote...and perhaps why I think we saw a Green spike last election, Greens almost gave a vision. |
EXACTLY!!!!!! Iggy didn't even try to win over Conservative voters and instead, unsuccessfully tried to monopolize the progressive vote. Jack Layton did reach out to Conservative voters by mentioning scandals and the Senate. Remember that Harper won in 2006 on the issue of Liberal corruption, and there was some NDP-Conservative co-operation in the early days on the issues of accountability. Harper began to drop in the polls when the NDP came in second. _________________ This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Searosia The Rain King
Joined: 09 Jul 2007 Posts: 917 Location: Back in Calgary!
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Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Jack Layton did reach out to Conservative voters by mentioning scandals and the Senate. |
Not sure if that was the reach out...I find Conservative voters work on the assumption that all politicians are corrupt, pointing out scandals does little to change your viewpoint.
Healthcare was a good reach out that I'm not sure you were fully aware of. The privatization movement in alberta is ultimately driven by an ineffective system of healthcare and from it you get 2 sides of privatize or address the current system. Layton's ad (the hospital using a Timmy's for overflow?) hits home here...there are a lot of conservative voters that want a fixed public system not private, and it plays really well to a youth vote that wants to leave it's impact on canada.
That said though...there is a base of left leaning socially but fiscal conservatives that the scandal messages play a bit better too, I might be prone to dismissing the scandal ads simply because I beleive the vision plays better when they actually do have a decent effect. _________________ Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party |
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TS. Delicious schadenfreude

Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 14585 Location: Toronto, ON
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Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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What is this "scandal" ad of which you speak? The only NDP ad I see here in Toronto is the "together, we can do this" spot. I do see it every 30 seconds though. _________________ "Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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DSquared aka Aristotleded24
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 5570 Location: Winnipeg
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Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:45 pm Post subject: |
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| TS. wrote: | | What is this "scandal" ad of which you speak? The only NDP ad I see here in Toronto is the "together, we can do this" spot. I do see it every 30 seconds though. |
This one maybe? _________________ This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt |
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Searosia The Rain King
Joined: 09 Jul 2007 Posts: 917 Location: Back in Calgary!
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Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2011 1:26 am Post subject: |
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Ya, I remember seeing that one a few times now that I think about it...actually kinda liked that one. I'm a little unsure on it's effectiveness given demographics...most of the louder conservative voices are the ones that care about senate reform and I can't see them actively voting NDP, though maybe a lil disgust with Harper to sit on their hands or cast a green vote?
It's effective though...not really the fraud part to begin that gets me, but the second half with Layton's speech. Great composure and I like the choice to put him in front of the Canadian flag like the Prime Minister should and not the NDP orange opposition colours. The let's clean it up together message at the end is great (Nenshi used a together msg too)...heh, I still think in the ending he's still trying to tell himself that he could be a countries leader. Earlier ad, I think he believes it now.
Incidentally...cons were running an ad that was attacking Iggy as a woman's voice as she's shuffling papers like she's doing taxes. Starting with Harper is lower taxes which is good, but I'm scared of all the lib promises and how they will pay for them...blah blah blah...*hasty edit in* Oh and the NDP, they think money grows on trees * back to our original attack on Iggy as woman's voice continues * oh wait we all already know *and cut to the sound bite of Iggy saying he won't take a tax hike off the table.
It just seems like it was a last minute edit in 'Uh Oh' moment on the conservatives. It's actually incredibly hard to attack the NDP, Jacks pretty clean and they haven't been in power to actually have 'scandals' come up yet.
Anyone know the context Iggy was saying that pretty much famous quote in?
Just saw the won't stop til the job is done ad while reviewing the post for my ever present spelling errors. _________________ Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party |
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TS. Delicious schadenfreude

Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 14585 Location: Toronto, ON
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Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2011 2:04 am Post subject: |
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I believe the context was the Liberal leadership race. The quote is from 2008. _________________ "Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson |
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