EnMasse

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Looks like Jeff Masters has also pointed out 91 potential now too. There is a pretty extreme high coming into the gulf though, and it'll likely push it up the atlantic coast...but not until after crossing through the carribean. It's starting to look like a well defined storm, though it doesn't look like it's circulation has close yet. Still another 2 days before we see that I think, but it may be sooner. Master's is referring to it as an unusually strong storm too...he'll rarely use terminology like that unless it really is an unusually strong storm too, I wouldn't be surprised if 91 hits Cat 4 or 5 within a week.

Chaba is starting to weaken pretty rapidly..it's storm surge is down to 23 feet...still significant but no where near what 32 foot storm surges are capable of. You can see some sheer winds begin to tear it up on it's north side...the north side of the storm has been sprayed out into the jet stream, this storms death should look pretty on satilite pics.

And it looks like invest 92 has become TS shary. Doubt Shary will ever become a hurricane as it quite well north and in deep water...even if it did strengthen a bit (which I doubt) it'd churn up cold water and kill itself anyway...should be no more than a mass of clouds heading for England by sunday..
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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BAMM and Lbar and giving funny predictions on 90 and Shary...two interfering storms always screw with a couple of the models badly.
_________________
Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

Looking at the latest visual images on 91, it looks to me like the circulation has closed. I would expect to see fairly rapid intensification soon. Over the last seven hours, 91 has organized quite markedly as well.

It's good to see that the track on Chaba continues to shift south-east. The impact on land should be much reduced.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

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It still needs time to develop before wind speeds pick-up though...a system this massive will take quite a bit of time to fully organize and close the system, just because of it's sheer size. You're right though TS, it is looking more and more organized.

The stuff coming out of the NHC is a bit ominous:

[TS.]

There's been a hurricane hunter flight into 91L, and as far as I can tell from the graphic on Wunderground, there are tropical storm force winds at the centre of the storm, where it looks like it is trying to form an eye.

The really dangerous part of this storm is that it is moving over some of the warmest water left in the Atlantic. It is currently over 29-30 degree SSTs which will provide a lot of energy for intensification. The most ominous part is that these SSTs persist all along the projected track for 91L. The storm is also moving pretty quickly (WNW at 20mph), so it won't be stirring up much cold water and killing its intensification that way.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

And hey presto, 91L has become Tropical Storm Thomas, the 19th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. This storm's sustained winds are already up to 60mph. Thomas has developed a VERY nasty looking area of convection which is going to travel directly over some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles within the next 24 hours. Fortunately, Thomas' intensification into a hurricane isn't expected to happen until after crossing the Lesser Antilles. Thomas is currently forecast to be a category 3 major hurricane by Tuesday afternoon, when it is expected to begin a turn to the north.

Tropical storm warnings are up for:
- Martinique
- St. Lucia
- Barbados
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Grenada
- Trinidad and Tobago

A tropical storm watch is up for Dominica.

Update at midnight EDT: Spoke too soon about Richard being a tropical storm when he crosses the Lesser Antilles. Sustained winds are now 65mph and Richard is now expected to become a hurricane within the next eight hours. As of satellite images from about eight minutes ago, that area of scarily strong convection has grown in size and spiral bands are now hitting the Lesser Antilles. Barbados is pretty well under the storm already, so they may actually get a slightly easier ride than the rest of the islands as Richard strengthens.

Hurricane warnings are now up for:
- Barbados
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- St. Lucia
- Martinique

The tropical storm warnings for Grenda and Trinidad and Tobago remain in place. The tropical storm watch for Dominica has been changed to a tropical storm warning.

Tropical storm force winds are extending outwards from Thomas for 165km from the centre. Right now, the storm surge is relatively minimal, 1-3 feet. I would expect that to change as Thomas crosses the windward islands and enters the Caribbean proper. Current estimated central pressure is 997mbar and dropping. As a point of comparison, Hurricane Katrina's lowest central pressure reading was 902mbar.

I don't at the moment, see any factors inhibiting Thomas' intensification.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

And Thomas is now a hurricane. Sustained winds are 75mph. The storm is currently crossing the windward islands.

And in a turn that is rather puzzling me, Tropical Storm Shary also became a hurricane. I can't understand how Shary possibly drew enough energy our of the ocean to support intensification.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Thomas appears to have undergone further intensification, with sustained winds now at 90mph. Everything points to further intensification, with Thomas likely becoming a category 2 storm overnight tonight.

And by the way, Chaba, now a tropical storm, never wound up making landfall in Japan, it stayed just off shore. The Tokyo area probably still got a good blow from the outer parts of the storm though.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Thomas is now a category 2 hurricane, with sustained winds of 100mph. However, visually Thomas is looking less and less organized.

It's interesting that all of the intensity forecasts are calling for Thomas to drop substantially by about 2.5 days from now, but then come roaring back even stronger than ever, with the GFDL and HWRF calling for Thomas to gain wind speeds in the vicinity of 130mph.
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"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Interesting to see Chaba never reaching land. I missed the sat pics of the sheer winds tearing it to peices too. When will hurricanes learn weekends are holidays...

lil baffled on Shary as well...though it barely became a hurricane. It did die really quickly as expected, but still would not have expected the conditions to allow a hurricane to form like that. Wonder what happened there.

Tomas is interesting to watch...St.Lucia got hit pretty bad, I beleive they are still in a state of emergency as they recover from the 90 MPH winds. Sheer winds have almost killed it though...the storm is hard to make out on satilite anymore, the upper part of the storm is entirely displaced from it's circulation. Apparently these sheer conditions (20mph or so winds) are going to continue playing havoc with the storm for the next 24h...then we'll see conditions favorable for tomas to come roaring back. Assuming the winds haven't already destroyed it.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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Tomas has pretty much been split in two...top half and bottom half being seperated from each other. We might see this weaken to tropical depression before it reforms
_________________
Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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The damage from Tomas is significant...13 million plus in damages (8.5 to st.lucia alone). Flooding is heavy, but St.Lucia took the full brunt on the northern eyewall (strongest winds) and sustained pretty heavy wind damages...many many buildings without rooftops now.

As for Tomas...this image shows the sheer winds working their magic:


You can cleary see the low level circular clouds of the storm revealed as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity was displace well to the west of the storm.

Scary predictions for Tomas now...it's drifting significantly south into the carribean. Looks like the models are starting to agree with this...if it does, Tomas will find itself over warm water and optimal conditions for storm development. Might be another 3-4 days, but we're going to see Tomas regrow and possibly hit the cat 4-5 range before moving out if the carribean.

Seeing a few shocked respones that Tomas managed to make it to a cat 2 storm earlier.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

What models are you seeing the changing track on? Every one of them that I can see except for NOGAPS continues to show the storm going west into the Caribbean and then making a hard northward turn and crossing Haiti or Jamaica.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

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Don't think I can show you the previous runs on the models...they get overwritten on wunderground. The runs now have the storm going further south into the carribean and staying there longer than they did previously. Three days ago the models had the 120h as out in the atlantic...now the 120h mark is barely out of the carribean on the UKMet run.

Nogaps has an odd prediction...the high pushing the storm south into central america instead of north east into the altantic. Find that doubtful, but interesting nonetheless.

Gotta laugh at the ensemble models...the white line prediction isn't even close to the majority of the pink ones. whats going on there?
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

I think the delay in putting the storm out into the Atlantic is more that the wheels came off and Thomas stopped moving nearly as fast. Speed is down to 11mph. I don't know that there is necessarily a case of the predicted track being distorted.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

The path seems to be a bit further south then I recalled it being last week...but you're right, the main cause for concern is the storm slowing down.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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Tomas is barely a storm by the Sat pics now. Lil model rundown....possibly for my own reference.

I like UKMet on Tomas...seems like a smooth curve and has been generally correct. Moreover, it's been saying close to the same thing right from the start on Tomas...I hate the models that come up with extremes on every run.

NGFDL - this thing has managed to come up with a silly extreme every run so far...It's got a quebec landfall for Tomas now (somehow the storm will go from florida to quebec in 2 days? seems a little extreme for speed). That bashing aside, GDFL seems to be the more accurate (maybe a little high) for intensity forecasting. Odd that it can get the strength right, but not be close for the path.

HWRF - I like this model for it's route forecasting...but not on Tomas. And it's been coming up with tiny tiny numbers for Tomas's strength as well...according to HWRF, Tomas won't be a storm tomorrow. Tomas is rebuilding and picking up in thunderstorm activity...highly doubt HWRF has the intensity right.

GFS is agreeing with the Ensembles...I remember GFS being heavily reliant on preasure, and tends to be more correct when there's a huge pressure system influencing the hurricanes movement...like there is now. We'll see how close it is to right I guess.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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Tomas barely exists this morning...I don't think I'd recognize it as a storm on just the satelite pics. Still contains alot of rain and might be a flooding threat in the region (particularly Haiti).

Tomas intensity models are interesting...in particular GFDL and HWRF are nearly inverses of each other. GDFL thinks Tomas will survive it's current conditions and strengthen while still in the carribean...then move off into the atlantic to die. HWRF seems to think the storm will continue to fall apart, move into the atlantic, and then restrengthen from there (no where near the same strength it would gain if it was in the carribean though).

Weird to see two models come up as inverses of each other like this

Just recording this discussion comment from Beven on wunderground:

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Haiti's going to get drenched...there's already reports from flood related deaths last weekend from what would be considered normal seasonal rains. Now the soil is soaked, landslide threats will be high...and Tomas is in position to drop alot of rain on the island.

30% - 1 to 5 inches as Tomas stays well to the west. We'll likely see a few death reports even here, mostly due to rivers flooding over.

40% - Major flood event with 4-8 inches of rain and likely moderate loss of life due to high flowing rivers and landslide.

30% - Tomas makes a direct hit and delivers 5 - 20 inches of rain causing a catastrophic flooding event. Haiti is heavily deforested and mostly rugged hills that will simply melt with this much rain. We'll see a larger death toll and likely a cry for help not unlike
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

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Tomas will hit Atlantidc canada by the looks of it. It's restrengthened to a hurricane...which to me is a bit on the suprising side from looking at it. Too big and lacking closed circulation or even an eye, yet still a hurricane with tropical storm winds reaching some 220 KM from the center of the storm. It should weaken pretty quickly, but will remain a giant mass of clouds...which Atlantic canada should see in about 4-5 days.
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Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party

[TS.]

Disorganized hurricanes seem to be the feature of the second half of the waning part of this season. Remember, Shary didn't even look like a cyclonic storm when it made hurricane status.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Searosia]

Back to the hurricane season...

Tropical Cyclone three (TC3) is kicking up...the model information on this is decently consistent (it's usually badly conflicting on Indian ocean storms) and it appears it will grow from a tropical depression to a cat 1 cyclone within 3-4 days. Wont' live very long after that as it hits cold water...not really a threat to a landmass either, maybe rainbands from flash floods, but nothing much.

Hard to give much history on this storm either...Indian Ocean cyclones don't seem to be well tracked and archived anywhere. I can't even find a pressure listing for TC3 here either.


And atlantic season comes to an end today, so I expect to see closing comments from a few of my frequented weather bloggers. The major notes for me was the relative luck of the US...I don't think a single hurricane made US landfall, nor did any storm kick up during the oil..umm...leak? Mexico took several intense hits and probably suffered the most from wind damage, and I beleive rain damage was likely the number one cause of damage to caribbean islands.

The number or rare occourences and first time occourences this season was pretty large...A large hurricane striking Newfoundland is unheard of for me, though there could be historical precidence there...I think Canada recorded one person dead from the storm, which is the only death on canadian soil from cyclone activity that I can find.

The intensity of the Pacific season was notably high...in previous seasons I could write this off as poor historical reporting to compare it to, but as the science grows that is becoming less and less of a plausible excuse.


Jeff Masters on his Wunderground blog does a good job of outlining the individual storms. here

added:
Yup on the US lucky bit. Master's has this:

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Newly released image summarzing the 2010 hurricane season. I won't put the image in, just the link to the NOAA site

here
_________________
Now is not the time for you Liberal fools, its time for a witch hunt. - Bloc Party